23rd Aug 2007
Labour after Rabbitte
Its going to be a long few months for the party on this island that most likes to debate. If the last internal election is anything to go by the prospective leader can look forward to months of small town meetings, cold tea and endless talking.
Last time around the Labour Party made a big mistake by fighting an internal election on external electoral strategy. Pat Rabbitte and his ‘anyone but Fianna Fail‘ message won through with a solid majority. Over the following four years he worked hard to build an alternative government around the so called Mulligar Accord with Fine Gael.
Pat Rabbitte is a gifted orator and was an energetic leader. He deserves praise for making a plan and sticking to it. Unfortunately for him it wasn’t a plan that benefited the Labour Party and so like all political careers his leadership ends in failure.
The positioning will start soon for the new leader. Brendan Howlin will undoubtedly be in the race as will Eamon Gilmore. If he chooses to stand Howlin could expect strong support from the grass roots. Gilmore might suffer from his Democratic Left ancestry which he shares with Pat Rabbitte. Should Howlin decide not to run, the word on O’Conall Street is look out for the left bank of the Liffey TD, Joan Burton. Her rise has been steady and her apprentiship hard but it may well be the Labour Party turns to a proven fighter with a head for policy and an eye for the future.
Time will tell. For now all the Labour Party can say to Pat Rabbitte is thanks, good luck and good night.
To read Pat Rabbitte’s statement in full click here.
Whoever the new leader is, what will they need to do to revive Labour’s fortunes? Ok, so they didn’t exactly do as badly as the provos or PDs, but likewise they’ve been stagnating electorally for the best part of a decade. Clearly something needs to be done to make forward strides. Personally I disagree with the argument made by some that Labour’s problem is that the left is dead- in a state where the two biggest parties are centre-right, there clearly is a niche for a populist left of centre party articulating the concerns of those who feel left behind and indeed those who don’t want to leave people behind- organisationally and in terms of policy and presentation I think Labour can recarve out a place for itself on that point on the spectrum. The question now is, will they do that?
El Matador, I would say the big question is not will they do it, but how? We always hear about targetting those who are left behind. But what do we mean? First it’s hard to define who we mean. Almost everyone is better off now than they were 10 years ago (this is the classic case of it being very hard to defeat a party whose reign has coincided with a boom). There are seriously disadvantaged communities but they are too small and their voter turnout is too low for them to ever make a difference for labour. And then there is the issue that most of the workforce fall for the carrots that the two main parties dangle - lower tax, more mortgage relief, stable economy etc.
Labour talk about Freedom and Justice - most voters don’t know what this really means to them. And how does it differ from what FF offers in Prosperity and Progress.
I think there is no clear way for labour to carve out a bigger niche than it already has. The bigger parties are just to all-encompassing, too flexible, too pragmatic. You want green - FF does green. You want lelft - Bertie becomes a socialist. You want economic stability - FF are prudent and pro-business. FG ditto but they don’t do it as well. So this necessarily leaves only a smaller chunk of the electoral cake for Labour ( a bit like the lib dems in Britain). There won’t be any significant change in this picture until there is a significant economic downturn which forces people to think that an alternative might be better. Ironically then, the best thing the Labour party could wish for is more misery all round in the form of a recession.
Tomaltach-
“You want green - FF does green. You want lelft - Bertie becomes a socialist. You want economic stability - FF are prudent and pro-business. FG ditto but they don’t do it as well.”
A short but accurate description of the southern political system
Harry Magee wrote an interesting comment piece on Pat’s resignation that I am just redaing now. http://www.harrymcgee.com/2007/08/inside-politics-rabbitte-resigns.html to read the rest.