22nd Sep 2007
Shifting sands of Irish Politics
Busy week of politics on this island. Fianna Fail announced their intention to organise in NI, Jim Allister MEP (formerly of the DUP) met with the rest of the Moygashell Mafia to plot a new beginning for Unionism and the southern Labour Deputy Leadership contest stepped up a gear, on you tube.
Fianna Fail’s decision is not all together surprising. The soldiers of destiny have been circling over a wounded SDLP for some time now and in classic Ahern fashion their move is a cautious and preliminary one, designed to provoke debate rather than revolution. North of the border there have been rumblings from some SF activists about FF joining the ‘peace’ when they sat out the ‘war’. Very last century and ever so slightly disingenuous me thinks. What will present FF with problems going forward was their suggestion that they would never take their seats in the House of Commons. Although understandable from a traditional FF perspective it’s a mile away from how their Northern supporters would see things. The one thing that sets constitutional nationalists North of the border apart from their SF cousins is their belief that you take the argument wherever it needs to be taken and work with who ever you need to work with to achieve your goals. This means going to Westminster to fight the fight for a new police service or for a harmonised rate of corporation tax. Ordinary decent nationalists in the North, Bertie’s ‘breakfast role man’ in the south, are Irish but they may carry a British passport and do not have any issue working within the UK system until such time as the majority decide otherwise. It is ironic that the party which most embodies pragmatic ambition and aspiration in the south should be so dogmatic about the North. This would also be an issue should the SDLP and FF want to sit down about working together or even ultimately merge. I cannot see the SDLP agreeing to be part of a political entity that was unwilling to represent people everywhere they had the right to have their voice heard. There are interesting times ahead.
Meanwhile in Moygashell the continuity DUP met to plot an anti-agreement future. With four recent by-election bounces in GB, Gordon Brown may be very tempted to call a snap election. This may give Dr Paisley an early opportunity to test support for his power-sharing politics.
I get the feeling Joan Burton is making her mark on the Labour membership south of the border. She has definitely outperformed Jan O’Sullian in the media and the word is she is doing well on the hustings. With polls closing in little over a week its all to play for.
It will be interesting to see how this goes, particularly in relation to Irish Labour- will they now move northwards also? Indeed, is a proliferation of nationalist parties each with a portion of the vote in the north a good thing for nationalism or social democracy here? After all, it could mean that the DUP, Sinn Féin and UUP become the ‘big three’- if the SDLP splits into two or three new parties affiliated with existing southern parties, none of them may get enough seats in the Assembly to entitle them to a Ministry (the SDLP as it currently stands had enough problems as it is getting into the Executive). There are also considerations such as the fact that the SDLP is constituted as a socialist party and is a member of organisations such as the PES and Socialist International- how will this fit into any proposed alignment with Fianna Fáil? Interesting times.
BTW, the civil rights conference is on next Saturday if you’re about.
Matador, companero.
A number of very good points raised in your comment.
1- Irish Labour is organised in NI although they do not contest elections (and would not without the agreement of the SDLP).
2- D’hont and the impact of a fractured nationalist representation. This has been the SDLP’s big argument against realingment since the GFA. I would be most surprised if the party did anything which weakened its standing in the assembly.
3- My own suspicion is that FF has wanted into the PES for years. But maybe thats just me!
Weber Shandwick moves offices next weekend but will do my best to pop in on the Civil Rights Conference. The agenda looks great.
No pasaran!
Hi Conall - the website looks good. Best of luck with it. Picking up on El Mat’s point about the SDLP splitting up into two or three parts, how realistic do you think that is?
Surely there can’t be much appetite left for any sort of relationship with Irish Labour following the Doherty / Dail Speaking Rights for SF deal? Also, I’ve noticed that anytime any prominent southern SF rep is interviewed these days, he is very careful to talk about the importance of working closely with the Labour Party - has anyone else noticed this?
On the other hand, Jan O’Sullivan has said pretty clearly that if she is elected as DL, Irish Labour will contest in the North - is Joan of similar mind?
Interesting times indeed.
Pat
To be fair to Labour I think the the Oireachtas pact is a tactical one in the same way as the SDLP and SF and the SDLP and unionism have tactical pacts all over the North at local government level, as do SF and FF, FF and FG and FG and SF. That’s modern Irish politics for you!
Jan O’Sullivan’s position on NI is interesting and I supect aimed at securing the small number of votes going North of the border. My understanding is that Joan would take the traditional Labout line that if people want to vote for a Labour Party in NI, they should vote for the SDLP.
Thanks for your comments.
Conall
Pat
Sorry I missed your point about SDLP breakup. My view is come what may in the years ahead the single most important thing is that the SDLP does not break up and that any future arrangement is capable of accomodating its people in all their diversity and its principles.
Conall
Conall
I don’t buy into the comparison between carve ups of powerless local council committees around the North and Labour’s deal with SF in the Oireachtas.
A very prominent SF figure has been rehabilitated and valuable speaking rights in the Dail have been given back to their TDs. Time will tell how much further they will develop the relationship, but I think it’s one to watch. I’m struggling to see the upside so far for Labour.
On the Deputy Leadership issue, Jan’s position is now irrelevant as I hear Joan is victorious. Are congratulations to you in order?
Pat I am happy to see Joan win. She is able and energetic and will make a significant contribution. Joan had a huge number of supporters of which I am just one.
[...] Labour) to think not just about tomorrow but about the next decade and the decade after that. The political sands of our small island are shifting and with the shift there will be an inevitable realignment of the [...]