O’Conall Street

Yesterday I posted some of my own thoughts on the future of progressive politics on the island of Ireland.

Ronan O’Brien, a former special adviser to the Leader of the Irish labour Party has written an article which appears in today’s Sunday Business Post on the specific challenges facing the Irish Labour Party.  I am reproducing it below with his kind permission.

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Perhaps the most over used words in debate around the Labour leadership campaign are campaigning and organisation.  Everybody wants to build a campaigning party, rebuild the party on the ground and deal with organisational issues. Such sentiments are understandable, they are after all the stuff of leadership contests and are central to any effective political party but they cannot represent the be all and end all of a new leader’s ambition.   For what it’s worth I don’t believe Labour is that weak on the ground.  Yes, we have succession issues in particular but in my own constituency in this election we were able to put more foot soldiers on the doors than any other party.  Labour receives volunteer support that other parties pay for.  Campaigning per se is fine but it is no panacea to our problems.  If depended upon excessively, it can be counter productive.  It may even garner support locally but hinder progress nationally.  The bottom line is that you can campaign for something morning, noon and night but that does not mean you have the capacity (or the public believe you have the capacity) to deliver what you’re campaigning for.  The health service is a case in point.  The reality is that the world isn’t divided into the black and white that campaigners often imply.  Tara and the M3 is a good example.  Often, there is a fine line between campaigning and whinging and the Labour party is often too negative and too prone to persuasion by minority interest groups contrary to the national interest.  We can be reactionary in the true sense of the word - responding negatively without thinking.  Campaigning is no substitute for taking political positions.   Suggestions too about the party changing its name miss the point also.  Labour and social democratic parties can win elections in the

7.  Don’t carp. Despite contemporary problems social democrats have driven much of what is good and progressive over the last one hundred years.  Not everything is wrong.   Vote with the Government the odd occasion and the public will pay more attention to you then when you oppose them. 8.  There is a limit to state responsibilityThe state cannot do everything.  If it takes on more responsibilities, it mush shed others or raise taxes.  If we call for additional state capacity in some areas and we should, we cannot uniformly oppose it lightening its burden elsewhere.  Our case for retaining state control of the national airline for strategic reasons might have been more compelling had we not made the same argument about hotels.  But had the state adopted the same attitude to broadband installation as to rural electrification the country’s competitiveness would be greatly enhanced.  9.  Communities can be wrongLeft wing politicians often pride themselves on being the voice of their communities.  Sometimes these communities can be wrong!  Put the national and public interest first. 10.  Regulation mattersThe knee jerk response of all politicians to any problem is to impose further regulation.  Understandable perhaps, but we must regulate for the compliant majority not the wrongdoers.  Excessive regulation stymies initiative and cannot cater for 100% of situations.  11.  Trade UnionsThe right of workers to organise remains a cornerstone of our values.  But equating trade union interests with the public interest is no longer sustainable.  It is time to let the unions go. 12.  Fighting our battles in the courtsWe need to win more political battles about our values on their merits, not seek to implement them by the back door through the courts or by placing clauses in constitutions.  Our responsibilities as citizens must sit beside our duties as citizens. Finally, what Labour and

An acre of news print has been written about the future of progressive politics in Ireland since Pat Rabbitte’s resignation as Labour Leader, and Eamon Gilmore’s election unopposed this week. Some has been insightful and credible. From within the Labour Party though, too much emphasis has been put on ‘the brand’ and an increasing belief that their problems can be sorted with a refreshed image and a new logo. If only it were that simple.

It’s not just the Irish Labour Party reflecting on a series of electoral misses, the SDLP and the PS in France are in the same boat, all searching for ways to make their type of progressive politics appealing to the bulk of the electorate.

Some will argue that the ‘left’ is sliding because the relationships between capital and labour, on which it was founded, has changed to the extent that class based politics is no longer relevant. Others will say that the race to the centre has forced progressive parties out of their natural space and onto territory bringing only confusion and internal dissent (the trade unions are not generally too keen on public private partnerships for example).  The anglophiles will point to New Labour and its marketing success and in complimentary or condemnatory tones comment that they are all spin - and that is why they win.

So has the relationship between capital and labour changed beyond Marx’s wildest dreams? Yes. Is the class divide crumbling and is traditional socialism becoming increasingly irrelevant in the twenty first century? Yes. Is this a bad thing? Well, no, unless you think that better education and healthcare, better jobs, any form of globalisation and the technological revolution are bad things. But we all know that things aren’t perfect. Far from it, and herein lies the opportunity for progressive politicians everywhere.

In 2007 people are more empowered than ever. And the opportunity for the centre left in politics to represent that personal empowerment and deliver a continuing message of hope has never been greater. The successful centre left politicians of the past twenty years in Britain and Ireland have all stood in front of the banner of advancement - economic advancement, social advancement, political advancement and societal advancement. They were leaders of empowerment who connected with the marginalised as much as the affluent and most critically, who communicated to the ordinary working man and woman. They said “support me and I will support you and your ambitions, your hopes for your children and your community”. They connected with the working majority without forgetting the marginalised minorities. Essentially they were for the many, not the few.

John Hume was such a politician. His SDLP was positive and liberating. It talked about peace and jobs and a post-sectarian New Ireland. It was empowering and built on possibility not rejection. As Hume put it “solutions, not slogans”.

The same could be said for Dick Spring. In the late eighties he represented the ambition for a better Ireland that in many ways has become the Celtic Tiger. He talked about levelling up not levelling out. His Labour Party was about better education and health care of course, but also about innovation and entrepreneurship. There was substance behind the message.

In capturing the imagination and the votes of the ambitious they always sought to build on what was right about society. No ideology is perfect. None can claim a monopoly on right and the best progressive politics builds on what has worked in the past. It is never destructive or negative. Blair mastered this. After two decades of conservatism and a full decade in labour party civil war, his turn came to present a credible, and by this I mean electable, Labour Party to the people. Many criticised him for appearing to swing too far to the right. I think this is unfair. Any examination of the 1997 manifesto would corroborate that this was a Labour Party standing for election not a conservative one. What labour traditionalists were more likely criticising was his ‘appearing’ to swing. New Labour had learnt from the Iron lady and they were going to beat her party at its own game.  New Labour would be the party of opportunity and hope - not the party that says you can’t own your council house, the very thing Mrs Thatcher was to the people of Britain in the late seventies.

Fast forward a decade in Ireland and Bertie Ahern wins an historic third term as the Taoiseach of hope and opportunity, something Dick Spring had represented in 1997.  He became the hero of the commuter belt. The representative of those who drive the Celtic tiger, not from behind the CEO’s desk but in the call centre and on the shop floor, the ‘added value’ in the knowledge based economy.

There is a gaping need for progressive, centre left politics because there is a huge difference between talking the talk and walking the walk. Having a social democratic model for a society is pretty pointless if you never get the chance to implement it. Telling people all about what is wrong with their country when they are fairly happy with things is rarely successful. Being a party of protest in a world of opportunity is as contradictory as it sounds.

The Celtic Tiger is aging and the North has reached an accommodation and yet this is, more than ever, an island of ambition. As our major social democratic parties enter new phases they should think about how to start talking the talk and then set about demonstrating how they, above all others, can walk the walk. In simple terms, modernise your policies and develop strong messages. By this I mean polices that are relevant, new relationships with the trade unions, a little less protest. More than credible on the economy, strong on equality, a community voice with a national vision, pluralist and ambitious. That’s the sort of social democratic party that could succeed in the twenty first century.

p.s.
My good friend Ronan O’Brien, a former special adviser to Ruairi Quinn, has penned an article for tomorrow’s Sunday Business Post on the challenges facing Irish Labour which I’ll post it here too. Ronan is likely to bring depth and substance to this debate and I hope suggest come specific actions to meet the challenge outlined above.

Every summer the opera would arrive in Malaga. Not for the posh people but for the ordinary men and women. We would sit out late into the night watching, Domingo, Carreras and yes, Pavarotti for free. The eighties were a great decade for the Iberian peninsula. Spain was social democratic and Portugal was free. The economy was finally picking up but the opera and the operetta lived on.

‘Classical’ music is everywhere in the Mediterranean. In school, you learn about it, in church you hear it and in the summer everyone enjoys it. It gives these countries depth and brings art into ordinary life in a way we all too often fail to do in these parts.

Pavarotti, Domingo and Carreras did something special in the summer of 1990 and shared the secret of opera and sport with the rest of the world. Nessum Dorma became the wedding song of the decade, the aria was the new football chant and things would never be the same again. 

Pavarotti is dead but thanks to him classical song is more accessible and literally everywhere.  There is hardly a town in these islands without an opera in the park.

Turns out Pavarotti’s first ever concert in Britain and Ireland was in Belfast. Lets ensure his music is heard here forever.  

On Monday blogging your way to the Labour Party deputy leadership was topic dejour on O’Conall Street.

 Today it’s a book I have just finished called ‘Freakonomics’. Its a wonderful read applying economic theory to ordinary life and considering the consequences. My favourite chapter is entitled ‘Why do drug dealers live with their mums?’. The answer is because the vast majority of them are paid very badly. Like any other ‘glamour’ profession (media, music, acting, ect) only those at the top rake it in whilst the rest scrape by in the hope someday they will be on top. Sad really but they cant afford to leave home. Even sadder that they consider drug dealing as aspirational profession, but such is life in many communities in Europe and the US.

The New York Times had now given the books author’s, Steven D Levitt and, Stephen J Dubner a blog. Its great fun packed with interesting extracts from the self declared rogue economists with a mission ‘to explore the hidden side of everything’. Check it out.

Speaking of hidden sides, the Klaxons, blew Ms Amy Winehouse back to rehab last night, scooping the Mercury Prize for best album.

A delegation of Northern political figures spent the weekend camped out with the warring parties from Iraq in Finland. I hope they learnt lots from our experience and will take only half as long as we did to get to the point of agreement. There are undoubted parallels between Iraq and Ireland, most obviously in the sectarian root of the conflict.

The North has shared its experience of conflict resolution with others in the past. I supported Mark Durkan, the Deputy First Minister, during a similar set of talks which took place at Weston Park and involved Isreali and Palestinian political leaders in 2002. It was a fascinating couple of days and there was much tough talking. unfortunately the change that could have come never materialised.

Only time will tell if this weekend’s encounter proves more productive.

Joan Burton, the impressive Dublin West social democrat with a head for the economy is well ahead in the online battle for the labour faithful’s votes. Her Dublin West Political Diary is bang up to date and pressing home all the right messages if you ask me, party organisation and the economy.

Main rival Jan O’Sullivan, is keeping it much more traditional with no online campaign and no messages to the membership via cyberspace. She may have some big name endorsements but as Joan Burton will tell you, in an election you have to go get every vote.  The Dublin deputy is, I am told, well out of the traps and campaigning hard across the country. She claimed ex Labour nasty, Joe Higgins’, scalp earlier this year through hard work and constant communication using every media available.

Off to the bookies to check the odds.

There is much speculation in today’s press about whether Gordon Brown is going to call a General Election in October or May, something that will be exercising our local parties here in Northern Ireland.

Last month Knowledge Shop, a public affairs briefing we produce at Weber Shandwick considered Brown’s option. Here is the gist of what we are saying.

Not only has Brown enjoyed a significant ‘election bounce’ since succeeding Tony Blair, but the size of his poll lead has simultaneously increased the pressure on Conservative Party leader David Cameron. After such a significant turn around, surely Brown is well on his way to win the next election? Not so. As the last few weeks have demonstrated, politics throws up unforeseen events, and although Brown has sought to brand himself as a ‘fresh start’, he is intrinsically tied to both the successes and failures of the previous administration. Bearing this in mind, Brown will understand the risks involved in calling a snap election. However, will the state of the opposition just sway him? 

Despite only being in office a couple of months, speculation has been rife that Gordon Brown is already musing over whether to go to the polls either next May or perhaps even this October. In a matter of weeks Brown has gone from being a predicted electoral liability to a political Behemoth, surging ahead of David Cameron’s Conservatives by a convincing six point margin – and even by as far as 9% in one poll. An endless conveyor belt of policies, calm capable handling of the crises around terrorist attacks, flooding and Foot and Mouth, a credible United Nations resolution on Darfur, and a stoic defence of British values at home and abroad, have certainly helped to endear Brown to the electorate. However, when deciding on whether to go to the polls, Labour Party history can only present the new Prime Minister with the following conundrum: did Harold Wilson go to the polls too early, and did Jim Callaghan go too late?

Last month a memo by Lord Gould of Brookwood (Labour pollster Phillip Gould) was leaked to the Daily Mirror advising Brown to consolidate his grip on power by calling an early election after “a short period of intense and compelling activity”. Following his takeover of Number 10, Brown was allegedly advised to position himself “as a powerful, muscular modernisation politician with the power and the determination to change Britain.” Thus, according to Gould, Brown should reject any strategy of delay, as “the risks of any swing to the Conservatives are too risky.” When asked about the likelihood of a snap election, Ed Miliband, whom Brown put in charge of drafting Labour’s next election manifesto, was slightly more sceptical, noting that the Prime Minister has “a big job to do to earn people’s trust and show that on the issues that matter – housing, health and education.” Miliband is correct. Due to the infancy of his premiership Brown’s surge in support can be attributed to his handling of events – and more importantly to the novelty factor of him being “nor Blair” - rather than his record on policy. The former Chancellor will not be exempt from criticism as events unfold, especially if there is an economic downturn. It’s the economy, stupid! After years of cheap credit, a booming property market, and low interest rates, the Bank of England’s attempts to curb inflation are starting to bite. Although economic growth remains buoyant and manufacturing productivity impressive, recent interest rate increases have led to a 30% increase in repossessions and insolvencies, and some economic analysts predicting that the economy could be heading for “its worst year since 1992, with a consumer spending slump halving Britain’s output.” If predictions of such a slump come to fruition, it’s unlikely that Alistair Darling will be accused of economic mismanagement. After all, if Brown is intrinsically linked with Britain’s decade-long economic boom, how can he escape criticism if there’s a bust? With interest rates expected to hit 6% before the end of the year, the average monthly payment on a £100,000 mortgage will have increased by £125, or £1,500 a year, since rates started rising. Although this is 0.25% less than when Brown granted the Bank of England independence, the new Prime Minister may face an increasingly belt-tightening and thus potentially hostile – electorate should he opt for a snap election. An alternative view might be that he needs to get the election out of the way before any economic bad news sinks in.

Yet, perhaps ‘Brown’s Bounce’ may be even more fleeting than once thought. As mentioned, Brown’s poll numbers have been shaped by his competent handling of recent events. Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University recently commented that the new Prime Minister is benefiting from not being Tony Blair: “If you take the view that Tony Blair was a negative, then anybody who was not equally negative was likely to benefit the Labour party. But most people haven’t formed a view of Brown; they don’t spend their time examining the minutiae of his premiership.” Thus, according to Professor Curtice’s analysis Prime Minister Brown is still an unknown quantity, susceptible to the same fluctuations in support as any other leader. However, time may not be on Brown’s side.

Possible Tory leverage?

On the specific issue of the protracted debate expected on whether Britain should hold a referendum on the European Union’s ‘Reform Treaty’, Brown looks out of step with public opinion. Despite his assertion that the new treaty is in Britain’s interests and that Conservative demands for a referendum merely display their “same old Tories” alternative, an FT/Harris poll found that 69% of the public favour a referendum. In addition, this issue is arguably Cameron’s ‘silver bullet’ where he can accuse the Prime Minister of ignoring public opinion and even commitments enshrined in the Labour Party’s manifesto. Perhaps most damaging would be a concerted Conservative attack on Brown’s apparent inclusive approach to governance. With public opinion on your side, could accusations of ‘Stalinist’ control freakery become as potent as the “same old Tories” label? Should Brown decide to call for a snap election he runs the risk of holding an unofficial referendum in tandem. Nevertheless, this assertion is based on an opposition that is both cogent and robust, adjectives that hardly describe the current state of the Conservative Party. Cameron also risks being portrayed as moving back onto core Tory rightwing territory – the issues of Europe, immigration and tax on which they fought and lost three General Elections – and abandoning the fight for the centre-ground - if he makes too much of the referendum issue. Cameron would be fighting a campaign on the premise that an endorsement from the Conservative Party is no longer a poisoned chalice. After all, it was not long ago that the party’s former Head of Strategy, Dominic Cummings, dismissed the Conservatives involvement in the anti-Euro campaign: “For many people just about the only thing less popular than the Euro is the Tory Party.” Unrest in the ranks? As Brown reaps praise for his handling of Britain’s recent crises, Cameron continues to receive a barrack of criticism from party donors and prospective party candidates. In the space of a week, Conservative Party donor Sir Tom Cowie branded Cameron an “arrogant, Old Etonian”, whilst former A-List candidate Ali Miraj accused him of displaying “behaviour unbecoming of a Prime Minister.” The trouble with honeymoons is that they are just that. Brown will inevitably falter and will face the publics’ wrath sooner or later. Nevertheless, without a viable alternative to effectively hold the Prime Minister to account, what does it matter? Cameron’s inability to seize the initiative and form a new, united Conservative Party may make an early election just too tempting an opportunity for Brown not to seize. To call, or not to call? Despite Brown’s lead showing no signs of falling, he is a man renowned to be risk averse and will know only too well that polls come and go. The big question is whether the bigger risk is to delay holding an election rather than to go early. From now on, Brown will be monitoring the public mood closely, knowing that an economic downturn, interest rate hike, or failure to placate calls for a referendum on the Reform Treaty could jeopardise his pursuit of an elected term in office. If Brown crosses the Rubicon and unequivocally rules out a referendum, he will have provided the opposition with fertile ground to launch an attack and hamper his chances of re-election. Yet, Brown is most certainly in control of his government, pushing his own policy agenda, managing crises, and without a whimper of party dissent to boot – more than can be said of the opposition. During his long tenure in the Treasury Brown was remarked that there are two types of Chancellor: “Those who fail and those who get out in time.” It appears that Brown was the latter. The next calculation is when to get out the vote.

Billy Bragg made a guest appearance on Radio Ulster’s Sunday Sequence today. I’m a big fan and thought I’d share a song of his which you don’t often hear on the radio. It’s out of his softer side! Have a lovely Sunday….

 If you’re lonely, I will call -
If you’re poorly, I will send poetry

I love you
I am the milkman of human kindness
I will leave an extra pint

If you’re sleeping, I will wait
If your bed is wet, I will dry your tears

I love you
I am the milkman of human kindness
I will leave an extra pint

Hold my hand for me I’m waking up
Hold my hand for me I’m waking up
Hold my hand for me I’m making up
Won’t you hold my hand - I’m making up

If you are falling, I’ll put out my hands
If you feel bitter, I will understand

I love you
I am the milkman of human kindness
I will leave an extra pint

I am sorry to say this but the GAA have again done themselves no favours by failing to clearly condemn Gerard Cavlan, the Tyrone county player.

Yes, they appear to have briefed privately that he has no future in the game and yes, his community appears to be shunning him as is often the case when someone steps out of line in rural parts of Ireland- but this is not a local affair and Mr Cavlan is not a two bit player with only his parish’s views to contend with. This story is being debated across these islands, has led to intergovernmental contacts and Cavlan’s undeniable connection to the GAA means that their name will be mentioned along with his in the reports, whether they like it or not.

From one perspective yesterday was a great opportunity for the finest sporting organsation on this planet to assert its authority and communicate clearly that people who apparently think it is good craic to watch dogs fight each other to death, to breed dogs for that purpose and to traffic them around Europe, are not fit to represent their county, their club or any other part of the GAA. Nothing makes me prouder then seeing 30 amateur players display skills and fitness worthy of the greatest professional games on this planet yet I am never sadder than when a spokesperson for some part or the other of this fantastic movement fails to address the central issue. By not condemning Cavlan outright the GAA failed to distance themselves appropriately, to send the right message to young fans and to recognise their special place in the heart of many of our communities. Saying that they ‘don’t condone’ is just not a clear enough message. Of course Cavlan is a private citizen, but when he puts on a county jersey he becomes an icon. As Stephen Philpott from the USPCA commented on the BBC, ‘this man is on my children’s wall….’. 

At another level entirely, mishandling this situation creates a PR problem. Last year the GAA enjoyed its best public relations ever. Allowing Rugby and soccer into Croke Park opened the gaelic games to a whole new audience. On this island many from a unionist perspective saw the organisation in a different and all together more positive light and across Britain, Europe and the southern hemisphere our stadium, a GAA stadium, became the envy of the world. Commentators waxed lyrical about these amazing games (gaelic football and hurling) and the amateur ethos that makes them so special. Everyone could see this was pure sport, played for the love of your club or your county, the most noble of contests and the most exciting of games. And yet now we have the proud name of the GAA mentioned alongside a ’sport’ which is utterly barbaric and illegal.

There is the possibility Mr Cavlan will face the courts again. If he does and if he is found guilty of further offences the GAA will be asked to comment again. Ireland we be listening carefully.

Got one of those blast from the past emails the other day. My old comrades at ECOSY (the European Community Organisation for Socialist Youth), the youth wing of the Party of European Socialists are have a 15th anniversary celebration and wanted to invite those of us who have held office in the organisation over the years to join them in the Hague. I was elected Vice President in 1994 during the very final stages of the war in Yugoslavia. During my term I learnt a huge amount about politics and international affairs and made friends for life. ECOSY is a good thing in my mind and long may it live.

Being called a veteran however has come as a bit of a shock. I turned 35 in June and that was fine, I have three lovely kids and they are great, but over the political hill and on the back burner before even getting a grey hair. That’s just plain wrong!!!

Having got that off my chest I am hoping to make Holland in November. Some of us who served together have gone on to interesting things. Luke Akehurst the New Labour (and back then it was New Labour) rep is a councillor in London and a colleague of mine in Weber Shandwick. Martin Guillermo from Spain has served as a deputy in the regional parliament in Extremadura. Philip Corderey the Secretary General is now a senior official with the PS in France and Mick McLoughlin can be seen regularly on the media in Ireland in his role as a Director of the National Youth Federation. Vinicio Pelluffo, is beavering away in the exciting work of mediterranean Politics and Renaud Lagrave has now got himself a career in French politics.

On other matters all together. An interesting debate on the dog fighting story which the BBC broke on Thursday is underway on Slugger O’Toole.