15th May 2008
Does Edwards’ endorsement change things?
The blogs are humming to the tune of “Edwards backs Obama” this morning. The Huffington Post, NYT, CNN, ABC and uncle Tom Dooley and all are debating whether his endorsement will bring the much needed blue collar white support base to Obama.
There is a common thread that there is not much Edwards’ endorsement does for Obama right now that it would not do on, say, June 4. Andrew Romano from Newsweek (thanks to RealClearPolitics for the link) thinks:
The “white, working-class” voters of West Virginia can’t recast their ballots. And Clinton will still clobber Obama—think 25 points—in Kentucky on Tuesday, even if Edwards joins him on the stump. With the primaries essentially over, Edwards is basically stepping into his inevitable general election role—a passionate, respected, credible general-election liaison to blue-collar America who sways skeptics by saying “I’m one of you and here’s why I support this guy”—a few weeks early. When I mused this morning about why seven percent of West Virginians supported Edwards in yesterday’s primary, a Stumper reader from West Virginia named “mountaingal” wrote in to explain. “I can tell the difference between pandering (Hillary downing shots), charismatic fluff (Obama’s rhetoric), and honest-to-goodness conviction. [Edwards] understands where we come from… His ’son of a mill worker’ message… resonates with those with similar upbringings.” For that reason, Edwards will undoubtedly help bring Democratic voters like “mountaingal” into the Obama fold by November. But again, he was always going to do that. Whether he starts today or in two weeks doesn’t make much of a difference.
That said, it’s worth wondering how many mountaingals and mountainguys Edwards can “deliver” for Obama—and whether those gains would be actually help Obama overcome John McCain in November. The signs from his brief 2008 bid are somewhat encouraging. In South Carolina—the only remotely “Appalachian” state where Edwards competed—he in fact won white men, whites over 30 and whites overall, despite earning only 18 percent of the vote to Clinton’s 27 and Obama’s 55. The only problem? Edwards has actually attempted a similar feat on the national stage once before—and it didn’t work out so well. In 2004, John Kerry only won over 41 percent of white voters—not enough to defeat George Bush—and lost in Edwards’ home state of North Carolina by a dozen points. Back then, Edwards wasn’t just another surrogate; he was Kerry’s running mate. So the record is inconclusive at best.
Tonight, Edwards opened his remarks with reams of praise for Clinton—and an explicit call for unity. “When this nomination battle is over—and it will be over soon—brothers and sisters, we must come together as Democrats and in the fall stand up for what matters for the future of America,” he said. “We are a stronger party because Hillary Clinton is a Democrat.” A gracious and necessary message, but even here it’s unlikely that Edwards’ timing will prove particularly consequential. Clinton is determined to battle at least until Montana and South Dakota vote on June 3, and any effort to declare a victor before then will only encourage her supporters to dig their heels in deeper. Far from changing any minds—other than those of a few fence-sitting superdelegates, perhaps—tonight’s Edwards endorsement will merely reinforce the existing contours of the contest. The Democrats will come together eventually, and Edwards will do his duty. But until then, he—like the rest of us—is just going to have to wait.
I don’t think anyone seriously thinks Clinton can now pull it off. I haven’t heard too many who think she is a credible vice presidential candidate either. Many pundits suggest her continuing is good for the party, allowing her support base to gradually climb down and come to terms with their loss, then switch to Obama. The next couple of weeks will be as intriguing as the [past five months.
This Yank in Ulster concurs. Some pundits may moot Edwards as another VP candidate, but I think that would not be wise (see above record!). Instead, my money’s still on Kansas Governor, Kathleen Selbius.
I don’t it will have an impact on Kentucky. Edwards failed to win a single state unlike in the 2004 primaries. I also note his wife was not with him during the speech. She has spoken out in the recent past favourably about Clinton’s health plan. I suspect they disagree on who to support.