O’Conall Street

An Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, is off to Brussles today for what will be a very difficult meeting with fellow EU premiers. He will have to answer for a no vote which has united the hard left and the ultra right across Europe in the same way as it has united Sinn Fein and Jim Allister in common purpose here in Ireland. The tragedy of last week’s vote was that don’t knows became no votes. A classic fear and prejudice campaign cast enough doubt in enough minds to deliver a body blow to the entire European Union. This was not a debate about ideas but one about interests and when politics is reduced to self interest it is nearly impossible to control.

There is a most interesting article on Real Clear Politicswhich looks at the Irish no vote from a US perspective and considers the dynamic between europhobes and europhiles in a comparative way to that between federalists and anti-federalists in the US. The author Mario Vargas Llosa is always a good read. His articles is reproduced below. 

European governments are aghast at the decision by Irish voters to reject the Treaty of Lisbon, the new attempt — three years after the collapse of the European Union’s Constitution — to move decisively toward political integration. The only country out of 27 in which ratification was put to a vote has left Eurocrats desperate to find a way to bypass their own rules and move ahead.

There is nothing surprising in this. Ever since Europe made the leap from economic to political integration with the Maastricht Treaty of 1992, a substantial number of European citizens have shown contempt for top-down efforts to impose on them supranational institutions. Each time a country’s voters reject a treaty — the Danish in 1992, the French and the Dutch in 2005, the Irish in 2008 — a new attempt is made to push for political integration without taking into account the things that people are finding unacceptable.

Part of the reason is the confusion of rationales and passions behind the “no” votes. In some cases, voters seem to be protesting against their own national governments, expressing their malaise in the face of an economic slowdown, or simply giving vent to nationalist instincts. In others, they have more principled reservations coming from the left and from the right. In the case of the Irish “no,” the spectrum of rejection on the Treaty of Lisbon goes from Sinn Fein, the left-wing party that used to be a front for the Irish Republican Army, to center-right groups such as the think tank Libertas, whose chairman, entrepreneur Declan Ganley, played a pivotal role in the referendum. Amid all this confusion, one thing is clear: An extraordinary number of European citizens feel alienated from the Brussels juggernaut even if they enjoy, and benefit from, the freedom of circulation and trade in Europe.

The European Union finds itself re-enacting, more than two centuries later, the polemic between the Federalists who wanted a Constitution for the United States and the Anti-Federalists who opposed what they considered the emergence of a political leviathan. There are, of course, many differences — which is why it is unclear that Europeans will ever be able to reach the kind of compromise that the Americans arrived at.

The ideological opposition to federalism was more clear-cut in 18th-century America than in 21st-century Europe — where political integration is not even called federalism. Although some Anti-Federalist groups were more concerned about losing support from their state governments once a federal entity emerged than about limiting government, on the whole the movement was consistently mindful of individual rights and fearful of bureaucracy. The Anti-Federalists lost, but they forced the Federalists to include a Bill of Rights that severely curtailed the ability of the federal government to intrude. Eventually, part of the Anti-Federalist cause evolved into the Democratic Party of Thomas Jefferson, perpetuating the pressure on the federal government to respect the boundaries (not always successfully or consistently).

The waters are much more muddied in Europe because the European Anti-Federalists, known as “Euroskeptics,” range from protectionists and globalphobics to free-traders and libertarians, and the Federalists, known as “Europhiles,” have been able to co-opt their adversaries once they gained power and became part of the club (with a few exceptions such as Czech President Vaclav Klaus, who holds a ceremonial post). Italy’s Forza Italia, a center-right party that tended to voice concerns about European bureaucracy, is now an ally of Brussels.

France’s Nicolas Sarkozy, the conservative president who once promised reforms, is no less of a Europhile than Spain’s socialist prime minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero: Sarkozy left his mark on the Lisbon Treaty by downgrading the aspects that safeguard free trade because he believes in protecting “national champions.” The fact that Europe’s mainstream parties on the right and the left — with the exception of Britain’s opposition Conservatives — are all Europhiles means that there is no democratic mechanism for bridging the divide between the people and the Brussels bureaucracy.

In the rivalry between American Federalists and Anti-Federalists, ideas were more important than interests, whereas in the antagonism between Euroskeptics and Europhiles, interests prevail over ideas. This means that every referendum that Brussels loses is followed by new forms of centralization that disregard the citizens’ concerns over the explosion of European bureaucracy. One cannot see a meaningful Bill of Rights emerging in that context.

Dallas Morning News blog has the story of a republican pin maker with a racist sense of humour. There will plenty more where this came from before November.

I have been asked to speak at a Royal Irish Academy seminar on geoscience tomorrow in Parliament Buildings which is being led by Garth Earls, the Director of the Geological Survey of Northern Ireland, and have been canvassing expert opinion on how to best illustrate the gap between many scientists and the press. Dr Marie Cowan, the British Geological Survey’s communications manager pointed me to a very useful report on science and society which was published earlier this year by Research Councils UK.

I’ll be using some of the findings in my presentation but was taken by the positive trend in public perceptions of science.  Through the 1990’s and early noughites public scepticism of science was at very high levels. Fueled by Chernobyl, Foot and Mouth and the perception that science had become too close to business many scientists and institutions responded by distancing themselves from public debate and the media in general although this trend is slowly changing.

My research for tomorrow’s speech threw up another great story, that of Carl Sagan, which highlights the internal barriers to communication within the scientific community.

In 1992, the astronomer, author of twenty books translated worldwide, an enormously successful television series and a Hollywood film, was denied membership to the National Academy of Sciences.

In fact he was not able to raise the required two-thirds vote from its members. Director of the Laboratory of Planetary Studies at Cornell University, Sagan had distinguished himself for the calculation of the greenhouse effect on Venus, for his studies on the surface of Mars and on the oceans of Titan, Saturn’s large moon. Too many colleagues turned up their noses at his tireless activity in spreading scientific news, which had made him, perhaps the most famous scientist in the United States, and one of the most vibrant defenders of science in the world.

Two years later the National Academy of Sciences reconsidered its vote, honouring him with the Public Welfare Medal. Sagan had brilliantly challenged two important prejudices which besiege scientists that choose to communicate with
the general public: the idea that scientists who do are distracted from their “real” work – research – and the idea that scientists are not able to express themselves clearly, as if their mental universe were so far from the common man that at the very least they need a “translator”.

There was an American academic who’s name escapes me who once wrote a long and considered article on the relationship between beauty pageants and societal development - the more developed the society the less attention it pays to miss this or miss that.  A decade ago the Miss Northern Ireland competition would have commanded plenty of media attention and the winner could look forward to a year of celebrity status. Today you would hardly notice and the lucky girl, in this case Judith Wilson (22), can expect not so much a year of stardom but one of hard slog as the North’s top promotional lady.

Fading stars likes buses always come in twos and yesterday was no different. As the tango queens strutted their stuff at the Europa, US President George Bush, the most powerful man on earth dropped into a sea of indifference.

The North is definitely changing and for the better. I guess if Barack makes it up Pennsylvania Avenue in January the streets of Belfast will fill up to welcome him. As for Miss NI, I wish her well, hope she has a great year and doesn’t work too hard.

Spent the weekend in Malaga.

I could go on about the great weather, fresh fish, deep culture and very reasonable wine but anyone who has ever visited will know there are few places on earth to surpass the land of flamenco and great football.  Mine is of course an entirely prejudiced view. I grew up in Andalucia and owe my education and much of who I am to the Spanish state. 

Ireland is a special country in Spanish eyes. The Iberian’s have a very soft spot for their northern cousins and would be reluctant to speak ill of us as a people. And so it was on Saturday morning that the coverage of the Lisbon Treaty referendum was as full of sadness as it was anger.  The front page of every Spanish paper in the shop was plastered with the news from Dublin. Three pages of analysis followed in El Pais with a further six on Sunday. The No camp may think they have done Ireland and the EU a great service but that is not how some of our best friends in Europe see it. To them this is the story of a ‘new money’ Ireland pulling the ladder up as soon as it got itself onto the next rung. 

In any case it is hard to imagine a more serious crisis for the EU or a more short sighted result for Ireland.    

The news agenda across Europe features prominently today’s referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Less then 1% of the electorate of the European Union have been handed a veto on this important agreement and latest polls suggest it could go either way. O’Conall Street makes no apology for saying yes to Lisbon. We are happy to stand alongside the main political parties in the state, the social partners and the vast majority of stakeholders in Irish society. Not to mention the governments of every other member state in the EU.

The rules of Irish referenda give each side of the argument equal billing even if one side has little or no mandate. Many may want to reflect on whether it is right to give people who believe Lisbon will lead to the micro-chipping of babies free airtime on important issues of national concern.  

On another matter all together. The Irish News this morning brings us news of Obama’s latest online endorsement. Apparently there is none as Irish as Barack Obama!

It has been very interesting to track how society has reacted to Iris Robinson MP, MLA’s comments on gay people. Whilst there is a small but well organised lesbian and gay lobby in the North of Ireland, reaction from members of that community has been spontaneous and driven by separate individuals rather than strategic or coordinated.

A decade ago it would have been very difficult for a disparate group of people to keep a debate going for this long as the traditional media would not have been able to accommodate the diversity of views or such a widespread response. The media traditionally go to representative groups for comment because programmes or newspapers simply do not have the time or the space to allow a conversation to continue in such an unstructured fashion. This is why organised lobby groups get a much greater share of voice. They provide the traditional media with a single voice, tipping the balance of influence in favour of coordinated campaigns and organised groups at the expense of the individual.

What is so different today?

Firstly the media has changed. All over the world the broadcast media has become more audience driven. The Nolan Show is a case in point. Producers and editors are surrendering more control to the listener and allowing the conversation to continue off air via websites. The same is happening with the print press where a story is now more widely debated through online comments. Finally blogging and social networks allow individuals to act and campaign without having to secure airtime or even be quoted in a news story.

For example, this week two gay men, John O’Doherty and Andrew Muir used the media to publicise actions they proposed taking to hold Mrs Robinson to account. Both are politically active, John in the SDLP and Andrew in the Alliance although he was also an SDLP member for some years.   As such they would have some experience of the media and the means and experince to get themselves on air.

Others have been doing their own thing outside the traditional media. Over the past two days a Facebook group has been created under the banner ‘Northern Ireland does not need homophobic politicians’ and a petition has been launched on the 10 Downing Street Website.  The latter has collected 732 signatures at the time of writing. A Google blog search shows over 200 sepearte posts on the issue in the past five days.

So despite the introverted nature of northern society it appears social and digital media is becoming increasingly popular and advocacy driven campaigns are spontaneously igniting when an issue captures the public imagination.

It will be interesting to see if this influences the Assembly’s response over the coming months.  

Croke Park had plenty of seats empty on Sunday for Dublin’s Leinster opener with Louth. This surprised me as Ticketmaster.ie  had no tickets to sell from last Wednesday.

It would be great to see some action from headquarters to address the weekly scramble for tickets and to ensure that where there are significant returns from clubs these are made available online. Opening the ticket office on Jones’ Road or Parnell Park is fine if you work on live on the North Side but not the fairest way of ensuring Dublin fans across the country have access to tickets on an equal basis.

Sorry for the indulgent nature of this post. As our Chris Brown (still ecstatic after Down’s draw with Tyrone) spotted in Private Eye this month. All too much blogging is….

Sammy Wilson has been promoted to the Department of the Environment. I can hear the green lobby reaching for the placards already.

Arlene Foster is the new Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Investment and Nigel Dodds has been promoted to Finance. So starts the Robinson era at Stormont with two safe pairs of hands in key departments.

A cigar also goes to Gregory Campbell who replaces Edwin Poots but will continue the language debate along pretty much the same lines. I do believe we got it kind of right on O’Conall Street this morning.

There has not been a post on Slugger O’Toole, Ireland’s top political blog since yesterday (Sunday) at 6.24pm which is most unusual. I am presuming this is a technical glitch but have not had this confirmed.  Everyone on O’Conall Street hopes this influential and informative site is back in business soon.

What a day to go down boys.