02nd Oct 2008
OFMDFM needs economic advice
Martin McGuinness opened the Northern Ireland Economic Conference in Belfast yesterday with a poor speech which drew heavily on the First Trust Quarterly Economic Review - a report which has been loosing credibility by the minute since its publication. As one colleague asked; was that last years speech?
He did not stay for questions or any of the presentations. Nor did any of his advisers or MLA colleagues. In fact I spotted only one MLA during the entire day and did not see a single Special Adviser. Pity that because some thought provoking presentations followed which offered a ‘reality check’ on the issues this region’s economy will face in the coming years.
I say this because Tony McCusker, a former senior civil servant and now Chairperson of the Community Relations Council, writing in this month’s edition of Fortnight Magazine expresses explicit concern about the workings in the Executive. Mr McCusker says:
“One key element of this fairly unstable government process is the expanded system of ministerial advisers….. Within OFMDFM they form a cabinet system like in the EU Commission….. Neither in the UK nor Ireland, both of which rely extensively on advisers, does the system operate to the exclusion of the senior civil service to the extent apparent under the current [SF-DUP] Executive. Advisers were apparent in the first Executive but there was then greater appreciation of the views of senior officials and perhaps a better basis of communication between political appointments and the permanent group of officials.
I was one of those advisers in the first Executive and can say that the relationship with the senior civil service was one of partnership. Yes there were tensions, but they were constructive tensions. This was not about one side beating the other or one group excluding the other. In simple terms everyone knew there was more than enough work to go around and we got on with fulfilling our roles as best we could. Back then a good few of us would have been seen as the annual economic think in. After all we were being paid to get our head around the issues and advise accordingly.
Back to the presentations.
Oxford Economics, Adrian Cooper, forecast a drop of in employment during 2009 and 2010 with recovery in 2011.
PWCs Philip McDonagh brought the figures home with some new research findings on the extent of the downturn in the construction sector which coupled with falling consumer confidence, retail spending and much lower public spending are creating a ‘perfect storm’ for the North’s economy. We can expect at 50% drop of in residential construction employment this year according to a survey PWC and the CEF conducted of over 200 home builders. The impact of this downturn will be felt in every county as this sector is well spread out across the North.
If you thought the problems are confined to construction or global factors beyond the executive’s control then think again. Skills are a devolved matter and the presentation on the size of the skills gap in this region was a red flag to our regional government of ever I saw one. The facts were presented by Professor Mike Campbell, Director of Policy and Research at the UK Commission for Employment and Skills.
I have already blogged about Martin Mansergh’s speech and additional comments. The quote of the day goes to Philip McDonagh who is response to a question from NICVAs Frances McCandless about whether there should be a formal social partnership structure in NI simply answered - Yes!
He is right.
With such little economic experience in the Assembly and such an obvious lack of understanding of the strategic issues facing the executive, social partnership would offer experts a stake in the regions future and ensure our fledgling government was able to work collaboratively with all the major stakeholders. Although this could be a big ask given their inability to work with each other.
We can only live in hope.
In the event that real problems occur re economy it is likely that the programme for government will not meet its objectives re economy and tourism and other such targets.
If this charade keeps on going could the SDLP not use this as cover to get out and let the certain facts of downturn speak for themselves and pin underperformance to DUP-SF for the incompetence of lacking the will to work together. An attribute that is required whenever entering modern day politics.
Surely it is time for the SDLP to get out and hold the DUP-SF to account come election of failed targets that came about of both personal and political failings that extremely exacerbated the economic situation too? Is it wise for the SDLP to stay in or perhaps it can bear it enough to remain a part of?