Blogger speculates on SF prospects

Seymour Major over on Tory Story NI has come to the conclusion that Bairbre deBrun is in fact in trouble.

In 2004, Barbara de Brun won 26.3% of the vote against 15.9% for the SDLP candidate (Morgan).  This represented a 10.9% swing away from the SDLP to Sinn Fein.  Admittedly, much of John Hume’s vote was personal.  The SDLP will not get back all of their lost votes. However, there is an outside chance that they could win a seat without having to beat Jim Nicholson.  Consider the following.   

In order to get elected on the first round, a candidate needs 25% or more of the unspoiled vote.  I can not imagine that Sinn Fein prospers very much from transferable votes.  Assuming that the votes from the minor parties to the Nationalists split 90% SDLP and 10% Sinn Fein, then de Brun is in very serious trouble if there is a swing from Sinn Fein to the SDLP of more than 2%.  Is that possible?   

I think it is more than possible.  I think it is a very significant possibility.  I personally know people who say they are switching their vote from Sinn Fein to the SDLP.  We have had no indication, by way of opinion poll, to give us any clue as to whether Sinn Fein has suffered loss of support resulting from its conduct as the leading Nationalist party at Stormont.  What is interesting is that the SDLP have mounted a stronger campaign than previously.  They have also done their homework, pushing out the message on Sinn Fein’s record in Education.  

 

One Week in Uganda

We leave for Uganda next Sunday (June 7th). Chris Brown and Alison Knox (until very recently Park) have been blogging away on the preparations as well as getting us started on Twitter.

Do call by and follow the trip online.

Alison posted up the full itinerary a couple of weeks ago.

Newspaper sales up globally

RTE reports on a survey which claims global newspaper sales are increasing.

Global newspaper sales inched up last year, contradicting predictions that dailies face extinction, as gains in Africa, Asia and Latin America offset slumps in Europe and the US.

Newspaper sales grew 1.3% worldwide last year from 2007 to 539 million daily, a rise of 8.8% over the past four years, said Gavin O’Reilly, president of the World Association of Newspapers.

‘The sector continues to grow,’ he told a WAN conference in Barcelona, claiming media commentators were making a ‘mistake’ when they predicted the death of daily newspapers.

Dailies in wealthier nations are struggling due to the impact of the Internet and the slump in advertising caused by the economic downturn.

Several US and European newspaper groups have declared bankruptcy in recent months, including the Tribune Co, owner of the Chicago Tribune, the Los Angeles Times, the Baltimore Sun and several other newspapers.

But in other markets like Asia, where a growing middle class is boosting the market for daily newspapers, the print media is thriving.

The Indian print media industry recorded growth of 16% in 2007 over the previous year, according to a study by PriceWaterhouse Coopers presented at the conference.

The relative health of the sector in the region was underscored earlier this month when the Wall Street Journal began printing a regional edition of the business newspaper in India, the world’s second-most populous nation.

However advertising revenues at dailies around the world fell by about 5% last year and it is predicted the drop could be even steeper in 2009.

Mr O’Reilly said the sector is facing a period of ‘hyper change’ with the appearance of new platforms for the distribution of information such as the Internet and mobile telephones.

He denied strongly that the future is ‘only online’.

Two-thirds of respondents in a survey carried out by PriceWaterhouse Coopers in seven countries said they were willing to pay for general news content online.

Analysts predict that the advent of better mobile Internet technology such as the reader-friendly Apple iPhone, combined with new payment systems, will eventually make it easier for newspapers to flourish in the digital age.

The Wall Street Journal has had success in providing both free and paid content, reserving the deeper analysis, opinion and insight for paying readers only.

Rupert Murdoch, whose News International owns such titles as the Sun and Sunday Times, has said he expects his other titles to start charging too for full access.

Finnish print media group Sanoma, one of the five largest magazine publishers in Europe with 220 titles and operations in more than 20 countries, has also built up a strong Internet presence which it says makes a key contribution to its bottom line.

The World Association of Newspapers represents 18,000 newspapers from over 120 countries.

Labour leads Fianna Fail in polls, again.

The Labour Party in the South is leading Fianna Fail in the polls south of the border again according to the latest Irish Times poll. There is no sign yet of any increase in support for Sinn Fein.

When people were asked who they would vote for if there was a general election tomorrow, the adjusted figures for party support, compared with the last Irish Times poll on May 14th, were: Fianna Fáil, 20 per cent (down 1 point); Fine Gael, 36 per cent (down 2 points); Labour, 23 per cent (up 3 points); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (down 1 point); Green Party, 3 per cent (no change); and Independents/others, 10 per cent (up 1 point).

The poll was taken between Tuesday and Thursday of this week, as the full implications of the Ryan commission report made their impact on the public.

The poll was conducted among a representative sample of 2,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 200 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is 2 per cent.

Stakeholder Election v Sectarian Standoff

I was on Good Morning Ulster before breakfast previewing this Sunday’s European Election Hustings which is being broadcast by the BBC’s Politics Show.

They ran a clip of Jim Allister, Bairbre deBrun and Dianne Dodds at each others neck’s in a good old fashioned sectarian row. In fact it was more like a full on domestic between a divorcing couple and her ‘caught in the middle’ sister.  Great TV to rival anything you could watch on Coronation Street.

There is another side to the big TV debate which was recorded a few days ago. Using some whizz technology the audience got to set the agenda and what was striking was just how keen the ordinary people gathered in the Great Hall at Queen’s University wanted the issues debated and not a boring old row.

A big majority favoured NI joining the Euro and having a low corporation tax like the South. They also overwhelmingly wanted the election fought on European issues and not on the old sectarian head count. There was even support form the Lisbon Treaty despite SF, the DUP, the UUP and Jim Allister’s opposition to it.

This brings me to what I think is a generational divide between the ageing ideologies of die hard unionism and old fashioned republicanism v progressive europeanism and the new green agenda. It was the new stakeholder North v the old sectarian one.

Maginness emerges from the debate as the most credible choice for progressives. Jim Allister as the most effective voice of old unionism. SF often look lost on the margins of the debate as they are on the margins of Europe.

Iain Parsley is an effective and informed debater. He would make a good MLA and if the Alliance have any sense they will find him a winnable seat. The greens have a popular issue on their side but Stephen Agnew still has a long way to go. Expect an improved performance though.

Paddy Power has slashed Alban Maginness from 10-1 to 6-1 in the past week. 

Its all to play for.

You can watch the debate on BBC at noon on Sunday and again at 10.20pm.

Bad PR

The front page of today’s Irish News carries a story no PR professional ever wants to read.

It is the tale of how a PR consultancy hired people to stand in line posing as ordinary punters outside an estate agency in Belfast. The objective was to create the impression that the development in question was very popular and that people we back queuing outside offices to book a flat.

We are all living through tough times and there is big pressure on in house marketing departments and consultancies to deliver. There is also a strong and entirely understandable concern, particularly in the property sector, that people continue to ‘talk down’ the economy. But none of that is justification for creating false realities.

It is a fundamental rule of our profession that you NEVER knowingly mislead the press or public. Nor should you ever allow a client to engage in such behaviour.  There is no caveat to this rule.

This is the sort of behaviour that undermines the credibility of public relations. It is taking the easy way out and does nobody any good.

Amnesty highlights issues on island of Ireland

Amnesty International has published its Global Annual Report today highlighting several issues of concern to this island.

Speaking in Belfast this morning local Director, Patrick Corrigan, said the world is sitting on a social, political and economic time bomb fuelled by an unfolding human rights crisis.

“In Northern Ireland, the UK Government’s failure to deliver independent inquiries into a number of murders, where State collusion is alleged, is of longstanding concern and continues to undermine confidence in the Government’s commitment to truth and justice.

“In the Republic of Ireland, the Global Report highlights again the failures by the Irish Government to deliver a referendum on children’s rights, a commitment made by Fianna Fáil and the Greens that is all the more urgent following the Ryan Commission report last week.

“The world needs a new global deal on human rights – not paper promises but commitment and concrete action from governments to defuse the human rights time bomb. World leaders must invest in human rights as purposefully as they are investing in the economy.” said Patrick Corrigan.

Education, again

The teachers unions are convening a meeting of primary school heads today to discuss the ongoing crisis in education. The unions like the SDLP and Sinn Fein are opposed to selection. Many hope they will use their influence to try and find a compromise which is capable of commanding cross community support.

Yesterday the SDLP accused the DUP and Sinn Fein of playing politics with selection rather then seeking a solution based on best international practice and some political compromise. In fact the party has taken out an ad in today’s Irish News highlighting its position.

The true impact of the deregulated system which the Minister has plunged this region into will not be known for several months but many teachers fear chaos in the autumn.

As a parent and someone who has an interest in effective government I simply cannot understand why more efforts are not being made to try and break this deadlock.

Some moths ago a debate started over a series of principles which might form the basis of a way forward. I have reproduced them below. What is striking about this conversation is how little desire there has been from within political unionism or SF to debate these in a serious way.

• Agreement that 14 is a better age at which to exercise pupil and parental choice about possible transfer for the final four years of education;
• Agreement to further develop thinking about a collegiate based system;
• Agreement to guarantee parents and pupils access faith based education;
  Agreement that an early intervention strategy should be developed to support children from deprived socio economic backgrounds during primary and early second level education;
• Agreement to consider and draw on international best practice when developing these proposals;
• Agreement that the system must be based on a commitment to social equity and educational excellence at every level;
• Agreement that the change programme would be rolled out over at least a five year period, allowing up to ten years for any institutional realignments to take place;
• Agreement that an interim regulated system should be introduced immediately.

Labour rap

The Irish Labour Party has a couple of viral videos which are worth checking out.

My favourite is Alan Kelly’s Muster rap.

Although those with more Dylanesque taste may prefer Sen Alex White’s take on the old classic.

Dolores Kelly threatened by gunman

Over the past twenty years I have been spat at and have had bricks and eggs thrown at me whilst campaigning for the SDLP. Both loyalists and republicans have found the our presence threatening whilst legitimately asking ordinary people for their support. Most party members of a certain age will have had similar experiences.

Tonight Upper Ban MLA, Dolores Kelly was threatened by a hooded gunman whilst canvassing in Lurgan. This is a low which brings us back to the early nineties when the late John Fee was left for dead by republicans in South Armagh.

The man who threatened this woman should come out from behind his mask and face up to her and for that matter the rest of the SDLP in Lurgan. They came to canvass in an estate they have canvassed many times before armed only with their convictions and a few leaflets. They were there because they represent the people who live there.   

With a gun in his hand and a mask on his face he might feel big but he will never be able to stand proud as a representative of Irish people. Dolores can this will not intimidate the thousands who entrust her with that role.