Who will write the Tory manifesto?

With less than a year to go before Gordon Brown must go to the country, the Conservative party remain odds-on favourites for a return to power. Weber Shandwick colleagues in London under the guiding eye of Jon McLeod have been considering how the next Conservative manifesto will be created, who the key influences upon it will be, including the role of David Cameron himself, and what the eagerly anticipated document is most likely to say in the face of the present economic conditions.

How it will be written and the key players involved

Though the Conservatives’ manifesto will have input from a number of different sources across the party machine, it is a safe bet that the bulk of the physical writing and final policy formulation will take place within the confines of the Conservatives’ Milbank headquarters, namely through the Conservative Research Department (CRD).  Key members of this body are Nick Timothy and Sheridan Westlake. Co-ordinating the CRD, and indeed the Conservative Policy Review, is Oliver Letwin, the former Shadow Chancellor who is also the chair of the Conservative Policy Review.  He is expected to work alongside James O’Shaughnessy, Head of the Conservative Research Department and Sean Worth, Head of the Policy Unit.

Overarching strategy and direction for the manifesto will more than likely be decided by a small group of key individuals within CCHQ. Chief among these is the recently returning Director of Strategy, Steve Hilton, who works closely with Oliver Letwin. Alongside him, Andrew Feldman, the party’s Chief Executive and a close friend of David Cameron, will hold considerable influence.  The Conservatives’ “electoral board” meeting, which convenes every Monday or Tuesday morning to discuss tactics, will play a leading role. Headed by the Shadow Chancellor, it is believed to be attended by embattled Andy Coulson, the former editor of the News of the World who now advises Mr Cameron; Stephen Gilbert, the election strategist who works closely with Lord Ashcroft; and Ed Llewellyn, Mr Cameron’s chief-of-staff. Lord Ashcroft, the Conservatives’ co-ordinator of the tactical seats and opinion polling campaign, will also have significant input.

Certain members of the Shadow Cabinet will be expected to play prominent roles in formulating the manifesto. The party chairman Eric Pickles is one example. He is a long-time local activist with strong links to the grassroots of the party and local politics, having been a local councillor and Shadow Communities Secretary. Pickles further raised his reputation in 2008 when he successfully ran the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, the Tories’ first by-election victory in 26 years. Pickles is closely involved with proceedings at CCHQ,  attending all meetings.  George Osborne will, however, be the most influential Shadow Cabinet member after Cameron. The Shadow Chancellor masterminded Cameron’s leadership election alongside Steve Hilton, and he is expected to act as campaign manager. Indeed, it may be no coincidence that a key member of his staff, Eleanor Shawcross, had significant campaign experience with the Boris mayoral team in 2008, playing a pivotal role in the formulation and writing of his manifesto.  Among other Shadow Cabinet members likely to be closely involved are Shadow Schools Secretary Michael Gove, Shadow Foreign Secretary William Hague and Shadow DECC Secretary Greg Clark, all known to be highly thought of by Cameron.

Two final individuals, notwithstanding Cameron himself, are likely to have major input. These are Francis Maude, the Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Nick Boles, prospective parliamentary candidate for Grantham and Stamford and former Chief of Staff to Boris Johnson Mayor of London during the latter’s transition period. Together, they form the Conservatives’ Implementation Team, conducting conversations with high level civil servants, including the head of the service Sir Gus O’Donnell.  The aim of these discussions is to ensure a smooth transition for an incoming government that would, on present makeup, see only Ken Clarke and William Hague having had previous cabinet experience. It is expected that Mr Maude and Mr Boles are using their talks with the civil service to help inform the manifesto as to attainable targets and timelines.  

Likely themes for the manifesto

In late 2007, when Gordon Brown had seemed poised to call a general election, the Conservatives moved a manifesto into place. The party was widely believed to be preparing a document which would create social reform by revamping and regenerating public services. Then, the mantra was how to best “share the proceeds of growth”. Now, the worst economic recession of recent times and unprecedented public debt  has meant a shift in rhetoric towards far more sombre talk of shouldering the pain of that debt fairly.

The manifesto is likely to adopt a two-pronged approach, outlining measures to address both the immediate crisis and also to create a long term vision. Key amongst the short term themes will be addressing the state of the UK economy. As David Cameron himself recently put it, “I am a Conservative who believes in lower taxes. But in today’s fiscal circumstances, the priority must go to debt reduction”. Thus part of the manifesto is likely to address the immediate difficulties surrounding the recession. Measures such as a two year council tax freeze, a £50bn national loan guarantee scheme for small business will aim to bring immediate relief, whilst handing power back to the Bank of England will be presented as a move to ensure against a repeat of the recent crisis.

 The other key short-term focus is expected to be how to deliver more for less, namely by increasing efficiency within the public sector. Whilst talk of proposed 10 % cuts across departmental budgets has dominated media headlines, the manifesto is more likely to concentrate on policies such as the creation of a new Office for Budget Responsibility, rather than revealing details on how spending will be cut. Cameron alluded to this approach in a recent speech when he proclaimed to be totally confident that, “once in government”, efficiency savings would not be hard to find.

Yet despite the present economic difficulties and public debt, one would still expect a long-term programme of social reform to be set out. Following the work of the Conservative Policy Review in 2006 and 2007 the Conservatives identified issues such as welfare dependency, educational failure and family breakdown as significant financial burdens upon the state.  The policy commissions at the forefront of the review, John Gummer and Zac Goldsmith’s Quality of Life Commission, John Redwood’s Economic Competitiveness Review and Ian Duncan-Smith’s Social Justice Policy Group identified educational, healthcare and welfare reform, as well as better policing and environmental protection as key priorities. The reports of the commissions have set the foundations for the policy papers from Shadow Cabinet members, which have been flowing steadily. An example is Greg Clark’s  Low Carbon Economy policy paper, which made frequent references to the Quality of Life commission’s recommendations. Proposed policies in the outlined priority areas are likely to include handing back autonomy in schools to head teachers, reconfiguring the benefits system to favour couples who stay together and ensuring a stronger police presence on Britain’s streets. 

Environmental and Climate Change policy is a particularly interesting element of the long term vision. Cameron’s Conservatives have long been champions of the environment and it is interesting to see Clark’s recent policy paper linking a green energy focus closely to economic concerns. Policies within the manifesto echoing this approach are expected to include the  provision of £6,500 worth of home insulation improvements to households, aimed at helping them reduce their gas and electricity bills. There is also likely to be a promotion of microgeneration, offshore wind and marine power. In addition, the issue of nuclear power has been placed within the context of economic efficiency, with nuclear power only an option “if economically viable” and not if it is a liability on the taxpayer.

A focus on city regeneration and renewal, largely as a nod towards swing regions within the UK, is expected. It is thought that David Cameron will only consider the election campaign a true success if significant gains are made in these areas, in particular in Northern England. City renewal policy will be informed by the findings of Michael Heseltine’s Cities Taskforce, which worked alongside the Social Justice Policy Group and the Quality of Life Commission in 2006. The campaign in the north of the country intensified in 2007 when the Northern board, a fundraising and strategy co-ordinator, was established. William Hague is the chair of this organisation, with Eric Pickles and Lords Communities and Local Government Spokesperson Lord Bates also important figures. The Board recently launched a commission for transport in the North, and this will be expected to add further incentive to encourage northern swing voters. 

As a final caveat, it should be noted that the next Conservative manifesto is unlikely to contain the finer detail to flesh out its commitments.  A case in point would be Cameron’s recent pledge to take action on quangos. Promising action, he struggled to name 2 out of hundreds which he would cull. On the one hand, this leaves the Conservatives open to criticism However, this is a tried and tested technique in the world of political campaigning – an opposition party can garner the electoral support by attacking an unpopular incumbent, accompanying this with vague promises of change.

When might it be written?

The schedule for production of a final Conservative manifesto is varied, with different elements likely to be finalised at different times. With policy on social reform so firmly ingrained into the party’s thinking, it could be argued that much of the document is already written, in principle at least, a year in advance. Having said that, the measures for the short term, namely addressing public debt, supporting individuals and businesses, are likely to be in flux for a good time yet.  As one Tory insider put it, “the manifesto has to remain fluid in the current environment with the economic situation shifting so quickly.” This will mean that the lines of consultation with business will likely remain open as important sources of dialogue, so that the party can keep its manifesto policies, in particular towards manufacturing, relevant.  One way in which business will continue to be consulted will be through Conservative Business Relations, a forum where business leaders can engage with the party and discuss policy ideas through sectoral and regional events. It is likely that the portion of the manifesto which will address the short term will be left as late as possible to write in order to capture the most relevant and pressing economic issues, with the document possibly being finalised during the campaign itself.

All this means it is unlikely that many new major policy announcements will be made at this year’s party conference. Some will have yet to be finalised, with Cameron wary of playing his hand too soon, whilst others are unlikely to have changed significantly, although carefully worded recycled commitments could be expected. 

The role of Cameron 

Overseeing the piece will be the Conservative leader, David Cameron. He played a pivotal role in the formulation of Michael Howard’s 2005 manifesto and, having learned the lessons, would be expected to be fully involved in the manifesto’s formulation again. Above all, however, Cameron is expected to focus his energies on the ground during the next few months and in the run-up to the election, namely in the swing areas. Before the election is called, he will use his Cameron Direct sessions to assure swing voters that the public is being consulted and has an input into the Conservative manifesto. During the campaign, he will act as the manifesto’s presentable face to the electorate. Cameron’s visits to by-election campaigns such as Crewe and Nantwich have set the precedent for his approach, as has his involvement, directly or indirectly, in the London Mayoral campaign. Indeed, he has now visited Northern constituencies more often than any other Tory leader in modern times.

 A machine and strategy appears to be in place for the creation of the next Conservative manifesto, suggesting a leader leaving little to chance. It will be fascinating to see the resulting document when the next election finally arrives.  
Additional reporting by David Swaden