O’Conall Street

Just back from a really stimulating day debating the future of earth science at an event hosted by the Royal Irish Academy, the Geological Survey of Northern Ireland and the Geological Survey of Ireland.

The most senior earth scientists on these islands as well as the profession’s European leaders identified the emerging skills shortage as an immediate priority for the sector over the next decade and spent some time discussing ways in which to bring a new generation of geologists forward.

Manuel Rugueiro, the President of the European Federation of Geologists, wrapped up his talk on that theme with a Youtube video which is worth a look at.

The news agenda across Europe features prominently today’s referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Less then 1% of the electorate of the European Union have been handed a veto on this important agreement and latest polls suggest it could go either way. O’Conall Street makes no apology for saying yes to Lisbon. We are happy to stand alongside the main political parties in the state, the social partners and the vast majority of stakeholders in Irish society. Not to mention the governments of every other member state in the EU.

The rules of Irish referenda give each side of the argument equal billing even if one side has little or no mandate. Many may want to reflect on whether it is right to give people who believe Lisbon will lead to the micro-chipping of babies free airtime on important issues of national concern.  

On another matter all together. The Irish News this morning brings us news of Obama’s latest online endorsement. Apparently there is none as Irish as Barack Obama!

There has not been a post on Slugger O’Toole, Ireland’s top political blog since yesterday (Sunday) at 6.24pm which is most unusual. I am presuming this is a technical glitch but have not had this confirmed.  Everyone on O’Conall Street hopes this influential and informative site is back in business soon.

What a day to go down boys.

The two major parties are now playing tag for the negative headlines. No sooner has the SF’s march to London dropped off the headlines that Iris Robinson guarantees the DUP a whole weekend full of negative publicity. This has not been helped by uncertainty about the DUP’s approach to discussions with the government on how they might vote on the extension of detention without trial for terror suspects to 42 days. Surely nobody in the the main unionist party or the British government is seriously considering a side deal on this issue.

Staying with the DUP it will be a good week for one or two MLAs when they find themselves promoted into government. For what it is worth the word on O’Conall Street is that following Nigel Dodds promotion to Finance, Arlene Foster will move to DETI and Gregory Campbell will enter the executive possibly in DCAL after Edwin Poots sacking.

Question is who gets environment?

Mr Robinson has a couple of options here. He could promote Jeffrey Donaldson, creating a vacancy in OFMDFM for the up and coming Simon Hamilton who is close to the new leader and his dear lady wife. Dark horse could be Michelle McIlveen who has impressed and would provide a much needed gender balance to the ministerial team or Sammy Wilson who would bring experience and a certain edge,  although the party is unlikely to want to let Caitriona Ruane off the hook that easily and will opt to keep him marking her closely as Chairperson of the Education Committee.

As for Ian Paisley Jnr I think it’s another stretch on the back benches.

 Of course I am probably totally wrong but a little speculation never hurt anyone.

When is an abomination not an abomination?

Well according to DUP First Lady, Iris Robinson, the bible says gay people are an abomination and that presents a moral question in her mind but does not nessesarily mean they are an abomination (or at least that is what I think she means). Actually after listening back to today’s Nolan show I now know she definitely believes gay people are an abomination and that she feels very, very strongly about that.

I would not be splitting hairs on this issue except homophobic violence is on the up in Ireland and today we all woke up to a particularly disturbing story on the issue from Derry.

Political leaders north and south can be very ambiguous on issues of sexual equality. Across the divide and the border faith is used to hide prejudice and vagueness is given space. The tragedy of this situation is that young men in the estates take cover from the double speak and perpetuate terrible acts of violence and intimidation on ethic minorities, homosexuals, migrants workers or someone of a different religion. And in their minds they are just doing what the majority are thinking.  

As we settle into a period of sustained political stability until the next Assembly election in 2011 and general election in the south their is much politicians could do to ensure their words are fuel for social progress and that prejudice in any form is excluded from political discourse although filling the policy vacuum is where the real job lies.

A non prejudice pledge in the Assembly and the Oireachtas would be a good start. This is one issue which could also truly be tackled on an all island basis.

Sinn Fein are doing the right thing by averting a crisis and supporting the First and Deputy First Ministers’ election today at Stormont.

That said it has been a bad week for Sinn Fein and particularly for party president, Gerry Adams, not made any better by his interview on Good Morning Ulster this morning. SF used the media to fly a kite and found that whilst there was enough wind to get it up in the air nobody was interested in hanging onto it when things got gusty.

There can be no doubting as I wrote earlier in the week that there are some legitimate issues with the DUP but raising these at the last minute and taking off to No 10 just gave their opponents in the DUP, the UUP and particularly the SDLP space to point out that these were matters they should have settled over a year ago at St Andrews or on a day to day basis around the executive table. 

The whole thing is pretty good case study in poor political communications.

Whoever was behind this escalation did not consider how civic society, so supportive of the party in recent years, might react. Fact is a year into devolved government nobody wants to see an Irish politician heading off to a British Prime-minister for assurances or comfort. The job of work is back here at home and the challenges are the bread and butter issues which require urgent and detailed attention of the Executive and Assembly.

Managing your communications in the hot bed of international negotiations (which SF excelled at) is something quite different to managing them in day to day power sharing government.

The shinners have been roasted by the leaders of Irish business over their opposition to the Lisbon Treaty. In a press release issued late last week IBEC says:

“IBEC, the group that represents Irish business, today strongly dismissed claims by Sinn Fein that the Lisbon Treaty is bad for Irish business. It said Sinn Fein had absolutely no credibility when it came to matters relating to the Irish economy and could not be trusted on the issue.

IBEC Director of EU and International Affairs Brendan Butler said: “From a business perspective, the Lisbon Treaty is a very good deal. The Irish economy has been a major beneficiary of membership of the EU and the Lisbon Treaty will further support Irish business and jobs.

Mr Butler was responding to a claim today by Sinn Fein that the Lisbon Treaty will be bad for Irish business. “This is a bit rich from an organisation that not so long ago was calling for an increase in Ireland’s corporation tax rate. Throughout this campaign Sinn Fein has deliberated misled the Irish public on business issues, including Ireland’s veto on tax and on WTO decisions.”

“The Lisbon Reform Treaty will reform how decision are made in the EU so that Europe can remain an engine for economic growth and prosperity. The Treaty will enable the EU to respond faster to the new challenges ahead, such as energy security, the rise of India and China as economic forces, and climate change. It is a very good deal for Ireland and should be supported,” said Mr Butler.

There are, according to Mr Butler, many provisions in the Treaty that support jobs and the economy, and below are three examples:

“The Lisbon Treaty for the first time gives a role to the EU in terms of energy security. It provides for cooperation between member states when it comes to difficulties in energy supply and also promotes the interconnection of energy networks. In the current environment of rising prices, concerns regarding medium term supply levels and our reliance on fossil fuels, a coordinated approach to energy supply must be a big win for an Island economy the furthest away from the source of such fuels.

“As an open economy that exports almost 90% of everything we produce the Lisbon Treaty proposals to improve transport infrastructure across member states must be welcomed . Transport costs are a huge and increasing issue for Irish exporting companies and any measures that allow us to get our goods and services to market quicker and cheaper have to be welcomed.

“The third area relates to the potential for Irish companies in relation to the single market. There remain substantial additional business opportunities for Irish companies in areas such as financial, telecoms, energy and environmental services. Five years ago we had no exports in environmental services into the EU, last year our exports were €105 million. Overall our exports into the EU member states increased from €44 billion ten years ago to €88 billion last year. Ratification of the Lisbon Treaty will give a significant boost the completion of the internal market particularly in relation to services and this has to be good for Irish business and jobs.

Mr Butler pointed out that IBEC was not alone in calling for a Yes vote in the Lisbon Treaty. Thirty six other business organisations, including,the American Chamber of Commerce, the Small Firms Association, Chambers Ireland and the Irish Exporters Association have come together and formed the Business Alliance for Europe. All 36 organisations which represent Ireland’s 250,000 businesses employing almost 2 million people are actively campaigning for a yes vote.”

The liberal rally call of the nineties multiculturalism is loosing its shine amongst Ireland’s most progressive thinkers. The experiences of the Netherlands, France and Denmark has caused a major rethink as to how best accommodate a multiplicity of cultures and faiths without affecting the integrity of a society. The issue is moving on from asserting difference to seeking appropriate integration.  

Today’s debate surround the decision by a community college principal in Co Wexford to seek official state guidance on the wearing of the hijab. The Republic has no law governing the wearing of religious regalia in school. I am not sure what the position is north of the border but suspect there is uncertainty here in policy terms also.

In the North I only wish we could get to the point where this level of debate was possible. The sad reality is that we cannot even bring ourselves to confront our own elephant in the room. The Executive has to date failed to publish any policy on community relations nor has it addressed in a meaningful way issues of broader cultural and ethnic identity. This is one debate that could usefully take place on an all island basis, the North benefiting from the experience of multi-ethnic communities in the south and the south benefiting from the north’s approach to the underlying issues of sectarianism which are pervasive across this island.

Of course this would require proactive policy development and debate in each jurisdiction. I fear neither will happen and we will continue our merry march into denial in the ’six counties’ whilst ignoring the issues in the ‘free state’.

The smoking ban is now well established across these islands yet there seems to be little drop in the numbers who remain addicted to the infamous weed.

 Josh Gilbert,a New York colleague and source of many a good blog picked up on an interesting New York Times story on this issue last week. 

The NYT covers a study to be published in the New England Journal of Medicine that finds there is a significant social factor at work in kicking the habit. It follows an earlier paper by the same authors that determined there was also a big social factor in weight loss.

According to Josh the research points to the enormous opportunity in healthcare communications to more and more create programs that defeat isolation, encourage participation, build community, and don’t just educate patients about treatment therapies but help improve health outcomes through facilitating advocacy.

The application of complex adaptive networks is becoming more popular amongst communications specialists and is driving our business proposition here at Weber Shandwick.

There is a big hole in the Republic’s public finances this morning. It’s €8billion big and that is just in the tax shortfall.

Meanwhile Dublin based Davy Stockbrokers are cutting their forecast for the Irish economy because conditions continue to get worse for consumers, as the labour market weakens it is harder to get credit, and because of a ‘negative wealth effect’.

Davy now expects GNP growth of 1% this year, and for 2009 of 2%, down from a previous forecast of 3.4%. On housing, Davy does not think 2008 will see building bottom out, but it has hugely reduced the number of house completions it expects to see next year - from 40,000 to 25,000.  It says house prices will fall by 10.7% over the next year, and by 7.2% in 2009.  It also forecasts that non-residential building will fall by 10% next year. The Dublin stockbroker says unemployment will have reached 7% by the end of next year from a current level of 5.5%.

One good piece of news came out of this island last night though. A treaty banning cluster bombs was also signed in the fair city after the British government backed down to internal and external pressure and agreed to a total ban. It’s not often you get to demonstrate the value of local representation at Westminster yet for the past month a forceful campaign led by Mark Durkan MP of the SDLP has ensured this island’s opposition to these hideous weapons was heard loud and clear in every forum available to our public representatives. Advocacy in action me thinks.