Labour leads Fianna Fail in polls, again.

The Labour Party in the South is leading Fianna Fail in the polls south of the border again according to the latest Irish Times poll. There is no sign yet of any increase in support for Sinn Fein.

When people were asked who they would vote for if there was a general election tomorrow, the adjusted figures for party support, compared with the last Irish Times poll on May 14th, were: Fianna Fáil, 20 per cent (down 1 point); Fine Gael, 36 per cent (down 2 points); Labour, 23 per cent (up 3 points); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (down 1 point); Green Party, 3 per cent (no change); and Independents/others, 10 per cent (up 1 point).

The poll was taken between Tuesday and Thursday of this week, as the full implications of the Ryan commission report made their impact on the public.

The poll was conducted among a representative sample of 2,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 200 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is 2 per cent.

Fianna Fail slips – no SF Ard Feis bounce

Brian Cowen heads into this weekend fighting for his party’s future and battling Labour for second place behind a resurgent Fine Gael. Today’s Irish Independent / Millward Brown poll has the parties as follows:

• Fine Gael – 30%
• Fianna Fail 25% – down 17%
• Labour 22% 
• Sinn Fein 7%
• Greens 5% 

The electorate continue to Favour Eamon Gilmore (Labour) above all other leaders with a positive rating of 52%. Bad news for Sinn Fein, the poll shows no bounce for this party or the Green’s after it’s Ard Feis at the weekend.

Irish Labour leader tops poll also

More on today’s Irish Times poll which has the Labour Party ahead of Fianna Fail for the first time in the history of polling here.

Eamon Gilmore is the only Leader with an overall positive rating at 44%. All other leaders have more electors expressing dissatisfactionthan satisfaction with their stewardships. Of local interest North of the Border will be Sinn Fein’s stagnation and the poor showing of Gerry Adams as leader. Mr Adams at 32% approval is only pipped by Brian Cowen who has a a very poor 24%satisfaction rating. This is an interesting result given you would expect Sinn Fein’s rating to rise as others, like Labour, on the left go up. Most commentators believe the party’s Dail and European Parliament team have not been able to compete with Labour and Fine Gael on the issues and are largely absent from the debate about the economy.

Damian Loscher, Managing Director of  TNS mrbi, writing in the Irish Times today says:

Today’s poll results go beyond the natural ebb and flow of the floating vote. Entrenched Fianna Fáil party loyalties are being challenged by a perceived failure to deal with a rapidly deteriorating economic situation. On almost every measure, voters have rejected the Government’s handling of the crisis. Satisfaction with the Government which has fallen four points to 14 per cent is at a historic low. Remarkably, a majority of both Fianna Fáil (55 per cent) and Green Party (85 per cent) voters are dissatisfied with the manner in which the country is being managed….

…..Labour have made gains across the board, amongst all age, gender and social groups. In an environment where all workers feel threatened, from solicitors to shop assistants, Labour’s focus on keeping people in employment has popular appeal. It offers comfort to a population still coming to terms with the new reality. It also hints that we want to be protected from the worst effects of the downturn and are not yet ready to enter the final stage of grieving – acceptance. Reaction to the pensions levy offers further evidence that we are not prepared for the painful adjustments that lie ahead.

Labour overtakes Fianna Fail in latest poll

The Irish Labour Party has overtaken Fianna Fail for the first time in the history of Irish polling according to the latest MRBI Irish Times Polls to be published tomorrow in the paper.

According to the Irish Times:

Fianna Fail has now slumped into third place behind Fine Gael and the Labour Party in the wake of its plan to make savings of €2 billion this year, through a public service pensions levy and a range of cost-cutting measures.

The poll also shows that a substantial majority of voters would now like to see a change of Government with 62 per cent favouring a change and 28 per cent opposed to it.

The adjusted figures for party support, compared with the last Irish Times poll in November are: Fianna Fáil, 22 per cent (down 5 points); Fine Gael, 32 per cent (down 2 points); Labour, 24 per cent (up 10 point); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (up 1 point); Green Party, 4 per cent (no change); and Independents/others, 9 per cent (down 4 points).

The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies before the political controversy about the Government’s plan to recapitalise the banks and the latest developments in Anglo Irish Bank. The margin of error is 3 per cent.

During my time as an SDLP adviser at the turn of the millenium the Irish News was in the habit of running storys about how Sinn Fein had overtaken the Irish Labour Party in the polls south of the border. It will be interesting to see if they run a story about how SF are stuck in 8%.

SDLP seeks creation of a New Ireland Coalition

The SDLP is to enter talks with Fianna Fail, Irish Labour and Fine Gael about the establishment of a New Ireland Coalition following the party’s Annual Conference decided today.

Delegates voted unanimously for the Balmoral Branch motion to establish a coalition with the following basic aims:

To promote debate across the island of Ireland about the economic, social and political issues common to the people of Ireland, North and South, to;

Politically support and campaign for the SDLP in Northern Ireland as the voice of the New Ireland, and;

To engage in conversations on social and economic issues with the churches, the trade union movement, business organisations, the unionist community and civic society, North and South, with a view to strengthening confidence, cooperation and trust between the people on this island.

The move follows a year long debate within the SDLP about how to progress all island politics without loosing the party’s identity and history.

Many within the SDLP believe this new coalition will provide an all island dimension to its politics as well as a common platform FF, FG, Labour and the SDLP on the big issues facing this island.

The New Ireland Coalition could provide a vehicle through which to fight the second Lisbon referendum as well as supporting Alban McGuinness as the only significant pro-Europe candidate in the upcoming European elections in the North.

It is not clear how the southern parties will react to this proposal. There is however a long tradition of close cooperation between them all and the SDLP on major issues which stretches back to the mid seventies.

At a time when the Republic is staring over the precipice many may welcome the opportunity to create a formal association which is capable of creating a national consensus on key issues without prejudicing each party’s individual identity.

As one delegate put it to me.

“This is a trade union for the New Ireland. We all may work for different companies and even compete from time to time but we are all committed to the basic values of a modern progressive Ireland; commited to a future in Europe, interested in leading as a global innovator in science, part of the green collar jobs revolution and committed to breaking down the barriers between the people of this island.”

At a time when the UUP are seeking a single party expression of their role within the politics of the United Kingdom it is interesting that the SDLP is adopting a more ‘Obamaesque’ approach, building a coalition which it clearly hopes will be bigger than the sum of its parts.

SDLP to debate establishment of New Ireland Coalition

The SDLP will debate the establishment of a New Ireland Coalition at its conference this weekend. The new group would create an all island political think tank and campaign group which would explicitly support the SDLP in the North of Ireland.

It is being proposed that the Irish Labour Party, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail would all become members of the coalition with the basic aim of promoting greater debate across the island of island about greater cooperation between the people of Ireland as well as openly and vigorously campaigning for the SDLP as the voice of progressive democratic nationalism in Northern Ireland.

The move is being proposed by the party’s largest branch in Balmoral, south Belfast. It will follow the final report from the All Ireland Working Group which it is believed will recommend that the SDLP continue as an independent, social democratic party and will not seek to merge in the short term with any other party on this island.

Whilst the thinking behind the proposed New Ireland Coalition is hardwired into the SDLP and much of the party’s historic success has been built on establishing and maintaining a consensus on the so called national question between itself and the major parties in the South, it has never been formalised. Doing so now could create a powerful campaigning group to promote greater all island integration whilst recognising the different political outlooks on the island. The simple fact is that a one size fits all political offer will not unite the people of Ireland – Sinn Fein’s poor electoral showings in recent elections south of the border are evidence of this.

A strong all island coalitionexploring the issues and challenges that will face this island over the next generation would create a space for real political debate not just within nationalism but also between the Irish people on this island and those of a British identity. That is simply not happening today. Nor is it likely ever to happen on the basis of a conversation between Sinn Fein and the rest of us on this island. That the proposed New Ireland Coalition would also be a campaigning political group in the North means the ideas generated would have a political vehicle through which to be realised.

The challenge of the next twenty years will be to build the basic infrastructure of the new Ireland.

• To build an all island economy, to strengthen trust and confidence between the Irish and British people of this island and between Northerners and Southerners.
• To shape a sustainable future built on strong foundations, harnessing the opportunity for renewables, catching the innovation wave and translating the island into a job creator and good payer. 

Of course there is also the historic challenge of accepting our differences and identities as a strength and not a threat. The new Ireland will have to rediscover its British roots and unionists will have to feel free to explore their deep Irish ones. This, also, is not happening today and will not happen until someone takes a stand and begins a conversation across the thirty two counties and all political groupings about the sort of island we all want to share in a generation.

Irish Labour sticks with SDLP

The Irish Labour Party will continue to endorse a partnership with SDLP if the 21st Century Commission Report which was debated at its conference in Kilkenny this morning is finally adopted next March.

The report uses Mark Durkan’s own words to the 2006 Labour Party conference to justify continuing a thirty year partnership in Social Democracy.

Speaking at the time Durkan said:

When many so-called experts were predicting that voters would walk away from us, you walked the streets and knocked the doors with us. And the voters stood by us and came out for us. I thank you for your hard work, just as I also thank all those from the other parties here in the South who supported us.

That broad solidarity reflects the unique position the SDLP holds in national democratic life. Just as the very warm response our good result got all over the country underlines the uniquely positive role for the whole island that the SDLP plays in the North:

• Leading and shaping the democratic nationalist consensus.
• Defending resolutely the honourable ideals of partnership, equality and respect for diversity.
• Rejecting absolutely sectarianism, violence and the divisions they foster.
• Fighting for social and economic justice for all. In Larkin’s terms, narrowing the gap between what is and what ought to be. An anchor for stability: An engine for change
• Standing up for true patriotic expression. Measured not in the standards raised to hang tattered on lampposts. But in the standards we raise in our schools, our hospitals and across all our public services.
• Working not just to unite Ireland, but to unite the people of Ireland as well in equality, in prosperity, in peace. Truly a better way to a better Ireland.

This will not please some of those who are members of the Irish Labour Party in NI but does allow both parties to move on and focus on building their respective mandates and offering genuine and credible choices to the electorate North and South at future elections.