Claudy report findings are sickening

Colleagues have spoken eloquently and powerfully about today’s Police Ombudsman’s Report into the Claudy bombings. None more so the Ivan Cooper.

Its findings are sickening. The victims and their families were let down by the police, the government and the church. The so called republican’s – IRA men – who planted the bombs have never had the courage to accept responsibility for their actions. Even today Sinn Fein spokespeople are spinning on the report’s findings rather the facing up to their responsibilities.

Today’s report tells us one thing we already knew. That there was collusion to protect a priest who deserved to be tried and subjected to the full rigours of the justice system.

There are also lessons for the new Northern Ireland in this report.

The first is that political policing always fails. The RUC were wrong to ‘protect’ the church and the lack of accountability made that possible. That’s why the SDLP wants MI5’s involvement in security here ended. As long as there are those who are not accountable with influence over policing there will always be the possibility of another cover up.

The second is that the legacy of the past is the present. We need to develop a mechanism to deal with the past and provide truth to those who seek it. Ignoring the problem or simply wishing it away will never address the right to some sort of closure victims and their families have.

Politics fails (again). Now bring in the governments

The DUP – Sinn Fein spat has become a splat.

As others have noted it will nearly certainly take the British and Irish Government intervention to wet nurse the big two towards some sort of settlement. I can see the big house, the media stakeout, the other parties being brought  in to provide some perspective. High wire, high octane (or maybe not) and all because our big two parties don’t do power sharing. Stand off and flag waving seem to be more their thing – real mature!

I spent yesterday afternoon with a group of upper and lower sixth form girls talking about politics. These teenagers asked me questions about education, identity, and the Good Friday Agreement. The issue of parading or policing wasn’t brought up, nor were parades. It seems these young ladies are very interested in politics but not at all interested in the issues which SF and the DUP are now threatening the institutions over.

Waking up as an MLA for the first time it is clear that the real gulf in our politics is between the big two parties of the past and the hopes and aspirations of our young northerners.

The challenge for all of us is to close it.

SDLP proposes Forum on a United Ireland

Within nationalism there is a permanent competition about which party, Sinn Fein or the SDLP, is the greener and which can deliver a united Ireland faster. This is a false debate. If nationalism cannot agree on the shape and structure of a united Ireland then how can it ever hope to convince the million or so British people on this island of the merits of one?

Sinn Fein have sought to make political capital out of the fact that they, and only they, have a ‘strategy’ for a united Ireland. This is a central part of the SF message and was repeated at nauseam during the party’s Ard Feis in Dublin earlier this year. Despite this the party is yet to produce a single policy document on unity. Nor has it been able to use the issue to grow the vote in either jurisdiction. The truth is SF want to hijack unity from the rest of Ireland as some sort of bizarre political Unique Selling Point.

This is why Mark Durkan’s call today for a Forum on Unity is important. What I believe he and the SDLP is seeking to do through the Forum is to elevate the issue beyond partisan politics.

The Forum from Unity, like the New Ireland Forum, should bring together representatives of all the people of Ireland to debate and agree a model for unity which would be deployed whenever the principle of consent was exercised and a referendum occurs.

It could have a basic objective of reaching agreement on the structures, rights and systems of a united Ireland. My own personal opinion is that it should work to a definite timescale, concluding its work by 2015. This would allow all the parties to coalesce around an agreed vision and strategy for unity and elevate the issue beyond party politics before the centenary of the Easter Rising in 2016.

By creating an all party, process to agree a model for unity – which may well include a parliament at Stormont – the Assembly would be unburdened of its ‘transitional’ status in the mind of some republicans.

This is important if we are ever to grow politics in this region which is about real issues being tackled by a local Assembly and not simply the perpetuation of old hatred punctuated by occasional coming together at times of crisis. Way back in the 70’s the SDLP created a process. It transformed Irish Nationalism and ultimately brought about peace. It is good to see the party again setting out a road map for the rest of Ireland to follow.

Sammy spin and Sinn Fein’s time bombs

Sammy Wilson has weighed into the silly season. Today’s press is full of news that he has ‘cancelled’ senior civil service bonuses this year.

What is less prominent is the fact that he will still award our top mandarins a 3.5% increase. Net result is that most will not be out of pocket nor will there be a significantly saving for the hard press tax payer – wish I could say the same about the private sector where pay cuts and job losses are the norm. Good headline but nothing for any of us in financial or policy terms.

Meanwhile in Navan the Sinn Fein leadership is gathering for a major think in following the poor showing at the recent European and local elections. They are doing well in the North but truth is that even on the ‘occupied’ side of the border growth has stalled and the party is now managing a support which may well have peaked.

Sinn Fein asked for a vote to support the peace process and encourage the republican movement into politics. They got it. In the Executive it has been one disappointment after another.  South of the border Gerry Adams has been wiped by the other leaders whohave exposed his shallow grasp of public policy,  North or South.  The Leadership has aged and there is no real evidence of organisational renewal. In fact the general perception is that SF m0bilse less people at election time today then it did a decade ago.

The problems manifesting themselves in the South have their origins in the North and it will be the party’s performance in the government North of the border which will determine its future across the island. This is because politics in the republic is about people’s issues and how to solve them – about being a credible alternative - not about protest and blaming the Brits, the European Union or ther market economy – or being a credible opposition.

You can’t help thinking that Sinn Fein is sitting on time bombs which sooner or later will explode undermining support for the party.

1 – Unity above everything. Sinn Fein go on and on about a United Ireland. North of the border this has the positive effect of winding up unionists but in the south it is a major turn off.  As the north continues to stabilise it will become increasing difficult for the party to grow support simply on the basis of its position on unity – there are no votes for SF in agreeing witrh the SDLP. People can and will see through one trick ponies.

2- Sectarianism. Sinn Fein’s inability to agree a community relations policy with the DUP also illustrates a major ideological weakness. SF oppose community relations because they believe it underminesequality. They argue that sectarianism is the result of the British Occupation of Ireland and therefore not an inter-community issue in the North. SF resist any policy which is regional to NI and as a result have a problem maximising the opportunity for regional government, irrespective of which jurisdiction it happens to be in.  Sectarianism is good for SF in the North but their apparent sectarian image costs them votes in the south.  

3- The Economy. It is well documented that the party is in the dark ages in economic terms. It needs to first develop regional economic policies for NI and then take an all island view. Today it has neither. No surprise then that southern voters do not see them as a credible alternative.

4- Education. the environment, etc. As with the economy the lack of serious achievments in NI government are costing them votes in the South. Southerners like partnership government – that’s why every government over the past twenty years has been a coalition. They also like their coalitions to work. The politics of standoff is another big turnoff for southern voters yet it has defined SF’s approach to government in the North.

5- Talent. Like the other three big parties in the North, SF is lacking in new talent. Most of their better quality second rowers are in the South and seem keen to move the party into the political mainstream. But North of the border it is all about getting one up on the DUP and short term tactical gain. The tail is beginning to wag the dog and that can only ever lead to trouble.

New nationalism now needed

What is obvious about Sinn Fein’s current woes and the SDLP’s stagnation is that a new nationalism is needed on the island of Ireland. You could of course argue a similar case to modernise British nationalism (unionism) here but ill dedicate this blog to the former. .

No major political party is seeking to recast the old nationalism’s which have shaped 20th century Irish politics into relevant expressions of identity and ambition fit for the 21st century.

As Belfast academic Richard English notes in his recent tome, nationalism remains one of the most succesful forms of political expression around the globe for good reason. It transcends, class and generation. It has the capacity to bridge creed and often provides a shared space for those of differing (left-right) ideological outlooks. Whilst Connolly said the cause of Labour is the Cause of Ireland,  it is also true for the very many of a ‘nationalist’ outlook on this island the cause of business or indeed the cause of science are also the cause of Ireland.

Unity is the central objective of Irish nationalism. The lack of agreement between the large nationalist parties on this island about what a united Ireland might look like is arguably the greatest threat to it ever achieving its central objective.  Because of the absence of an agreed vision of unity, it has become a party political issue with different nationalist parties seeking to ‘out green’ each other on an issue which should really unite them.

There is a constituency looking for a new Ireland.

Younger generations are disinterested in re-running the old battles of the past. Old ideologues are looking increasingly out of touch and old ideologies feel more and more irrelevant to the lives and challenges facing ordinary working people and families across this island.

The time has come for some positive and progressive nationalism. Credible on unity but not solely defined by it. Capable of speaking to working families, business people and international investors in language they understand. Strong on conversation and not confrontation, with sustainability at its heart and innovation in its DNA. A modern politics for a 21st century Ireland. in short a politics that can ignite conversations and unlock ambition in every county at the same time as being respectful and credible to unionism.

Before we can develop a stratgy fro unity we need a vision for this island not just in 2016 but in 2026 and beyond.

This is the great opportunity for a new generation of Irish politicians ansd civic leaders.

Blogger speculates on SF prospects

Seymour Major over on Tory Story NI has come to the conclusion that Bairbre deBrun is in fact in trouble.

In 2004, Barbara de Brun won 26.3% of the vote against 15.9% for the SDLP candidate (Morgan).  This represented a 10.9% swing away from the SDLP to Sinn Fein.  Admittedly, much of John Hume’s vote was personal.  The SDLP will not get back all of their lost votes. However, there is an outside chance that they could win a seat without having to beat Jim Nicholson.  Consider the following.   

In order to get elected on the first round, a candidate needs 25% or more of the unspoiled vote.  I can not imagine that Sinn Fein prospers very much from transferable votes.  Assuming that the votes from the minor parties to the Nationalists split 90% SDLP and 10% Sinn Fein, then de Brun is in very serious trouble if there is a swing from Sinn Fein to the SDLP of more than 2%.  Is that possible?   

I think it is more than possible.  I think it is a very significant possibility.  I personally know people who say they are switching their vote from Sinn Fein to the SDLP.  We have had no indication, by way of opinion poll, to give us any clue as to whether Sinn Fein has suffered loss of support resulting from its conduct as the leading Nationalist party at Stormont.  What is interesting is that the SDLP have mounted a stronger campaign than previously.  They have also done their homework, pushing out the message on Sinn Fein’s record in Education.  

 

Labour leads Fianna Fail in polls, again.

The Labour Party in the South is leading Fianna Fail in the polls south of the border again according to the latest Irish Times poll. There is no sign yet of any increase in support for Sinn Fein.

When people were asked who they would vote for if there was a general election tomorrow, the adjusted figures for party support, compared with the last Irish Times poll on May 14th, were: Fianna Fáil, 20 per cent (down 1 point); Fine Gael, 36 per cent (down 2 points); Labour, 23 per cent (up 3 points); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (down 1 point); Green Party, 3 per cent (no change); and Independents/others, 10 per cent (up 1 point).

The poll was taken between Tuesday and Thursday of this week, as the full implications of the Ryan commission report made their impact on the public.

The poll was conducted among a representative sample of 2,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 200 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is 2 per cent.

Fianna Fail slips – no SF Ard Feis bounce

Brian Cowen heads into this weekend fighting for his party’s future and battling Labour for second place behind a resurgent Fine Gael. Today’s Irish Independent / Millward Brown poll has the parties as follows:

• Fine Gael – 30%
• Fianna Fail 25% – down 17%
• Labour 22% 
• Sinn Fein 7%
• Greens 5% 

The electorate continue to Favour Eamon Gilmore (Labour) above all other leaders with a positive rating of 52%. Bad news for Sinn Fein, the poll shows no bounce for this party or the Green’s after it’s Ard Feis at the weekend.

Sinn Fein’s history lesson. But where are the policies?

I just watched Sinn Fein’s party political broadcast on TV.

Full marks to the boys and girls in the republican movement for a first class lesson in revisionism. Out was the thirty years of indiscriminate violence and in was a claim to the holy grail of Irish democracy, the 1918 Dail. I am not going to challenge their right to remember the men and women who laid the foundation stones of the Irish state. That legacy belongs to us all and SF has as much of a right to mark it as any other Irish political organisation.

What was bizarre in political communications terms was the total absence of any commentary on the party’s role as a lead partner in government on this island. Watching the video you could be forgiven for believing SF was an opposition force in Irish politics with no office or responsibility for the economic recovery, no role in job creation and no ideas about what their own government in the North should be doing to get Irish people back to work. 

The piece also spent some time committing SF to the promotion of women and the pursuit of equality, an unfortunate message on the same day the party settled a sexual discrimination case with Dodie McGuinness for £15,000.

The party’s message seems built on the past with no relationship to the present and a very narrow view of our future.

Maybe that will prove to be a vote winner.

But then maybe it will not.

Labour overtakes Fianna Fail in latest poll

The Irish Labour Party has overtaken Fianna Fail for the first time in the history of Irish polling according to the latest MRBI Irish Times Polls to be published tomorrow in the paper.

According to the Irish Times:

Fianna Fail has now slumped into third place behind Fine Gael and the Labour Party in the wake of its plan to make savings of €2 billion this year, through a public service pensions levy and a range of cost-cutting measures.

The poll also shows that a substantial majority of voters would now like to see a change of Government with 62 per cent favouring a change and 28 per cent opposed to it.

The adjusted figures for party support, compared with the last Irish Times poll in November are: Fianna Fáil, 22 per cent (down 5 points); Fine Gael, 32 per cent (down 2 points); Labour, 24 per cent (up 10 point); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (up 1 point); Green Party, 4 per cent (no change); and Independents/others, 9 per cent (down 4 points).

The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies before the political controversy about the Government’s plan to recapitalise the banks and the latest developments in Anglo Irish Bank. The margin of error is 3 per cent.

During my time as an SDLP adviser at the turn of the millenium the Irish News was in the habit of running storys about how Sinn Fein had overtaken the Irish Labour Party in the polls south of the border. It will be interesting to see if they run a story about how SF are stuck in 8%.