Blair’s back but will voters follow?

Some good breaking analysis of Tony Blair’s speech this morning by James Macintyre on the New Statesman blog.

Much will be made of how Tony Blair “still has the old magic”, and it is true: he does. Adorned with a deep, Middle-Eastern tan, a little slimmer and — at times — almost sounding a touch American, Blair has lost none of his communication and, yes, performance skills. Predictably, he had the room of Labour activists laughing in the north east area around his former constituency of Sedgefield, which Blair called his “political spiritual home”, with the routine self-depreciating gags about how forbidding it could be for Tory candidates (encouraged by locals to address the working men’s clubs during the Bingo), and, at first, for Blair himself. Much, too, will be debated over whether Blair remains an “asset” for his party, given, especially, the 2003 invasion of Iraq and its aftermath. But set against the Labour slogan of “A Future Fair for All” and unusually wearing a red tie, Blair had the local party in thrall to his every word.

And it is the substance of those words, not the style in which they were delivered, that deserve real attention before what Blair said was a “momentous” forthcoming decision for the electorate. First, this self-proclaimed “optimist” outlined the context in which this election draws near. He said that the power elites back in September 2007 privately believed that the world economy was “doomed” to a return to the 1930s, and contrasted that to the promise of growth and recovery marked by this month’s Budget. This “path” was mapped out “not by chance; but by choice”, he said. And, ushering in his first round of applause of the speech, Blair said the words Downing Street has collectively been waiting to hear: “The decision to act required leadership. And Gordon brown supplied it.” Blair paid tribute to Alistair Darling too, and his old friend Peter Mandelson. “In uncertain times,” said Blair, “there’s a lot to be said for certain leadership”.

Yet the most powerful passage came when Blair turned his full fire on the Tories, for the first time since he left Downing Street in the summer of ‘07. He said the question was who “gets” the future direction Britain must take, and revealed his view that “time for a change” is the most “vacuous” of political slogans. For the Tories have not changed, Blair argued with skill. Crucially, Blair compared the current Tory position with that of New Labour prior to the 1997 election. Labour had changed its party constitution, compromised with the electorate; and even when Labour was twenty points ahead, he pointed out, the party leadership did not flinch from its new “philosophical” position which was “woven” right across its policy agenda.

Blair – a man with a plan?

Tony Blair gave an interesting interview to News Night last night which you can watch here. 

Discussing the need to bring Hamas into the negotiating process, Mr Blair was asked about the parallels with Northern Ireland. He made the important and often overlooked point about our own process; that Sinn Fein had to adopt the Mitchell Principles before joining the talks.

Could such a path be open to Hamas?

With President Elect Obama now mooting the possibility of some level of contact between the US and Hamas and the Egyptians and Syrians already involved in the talks with them Mr Blair, whilst not departing from his mandate,  seemed to be suggesting that a Mitchell style set of principles could unlock a talks process.

None of this is going to happen whilst the slaughter of innocents continues and - as was the case here in Ireland - until the United States stops taking sides and uses its powers to promote peace and not war.

I make this observation with one reservation.

When SF’s leaders were handed the keys their negotiators room they saw it as an opportunity to get the keys to the leadership of the nationalist community. The process became a serendipitous one for Sinn Fein and the British and Irish governments ended up by default or design contributing to the weakening of the SDLP.

Fatah has held the line for secular Palestinian nationalism for decades and must not end up as an accidental casualty of a process designed to bring Hamas in from the cold. Mr Blair will know this and will also know how to avoid it if he has learnt from his mistakes here.

None the less, right here – right now, I would say he is a man with a possible plan and that is something we should all support.